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GRAY ZONE
Traders see 1-in-6 odds of a NATO-Russia clash this year. But the real risk may lie in events that won’t trigger a YES resolution
Jun 12
•
Polymarket
and
Jonathan Masters
19
3
6
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MAINE SQUEEZE
Democratic operative TheMaineWonk on the Trump-like antifragility of Graham Platner PLUS how to watch Maine on election night.
Jun 10
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
20
2
5
THE ARGENTINA MODEL
Hedge fund manager Chris DeMuth Jr. on why Latin America is going the way of Argentina PLUS eBay, SpaceX, and Warner Bros M&A update
Jun 5
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Polymarket
and
Will Ward
38
1
10
THE MATH OF DEFEAT
Hedge fund manager on the inevitability of US defeat in Iran
May 29
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
69
11
10
SLEEPING GIGANTE?
Are World Cup traders overlooking the defending champs? PLUS: The Norway paradox, bracket path dependency, and U.S. home cooking
May 28
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Neil Paine
and
Polymarket
24
6
BASS FISHING
Can a reality TV bad boy burn down the career of LA's mayor?
May 20
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
40
10
10
ARMS RACE
Democratic operative on what the Supreme Court’s Callais ruling means for the midterms
May 1
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
27
3
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