🔮 WILL TRUMP HIT IRAN?

5 Polymarkets on what’s next in the Iran conflict

Polymarket

Jun 20, 2025

The Iran-Israel-USA(?) situation is evolving fast, and timelines are swirling with misinformation.

Here are 5 Polymarkets on where traders think things are heading.

1. Trump: Head Fake or Negotiation Window?

Odds for the US to enter the Iran-Israel war this month are now 37%, down from a high of 70% yesterday.

The decline was caused by a statement from Karoline Leavitt hinting at a possible 2-week window for negotiations.

But if the US does enter the conflict, it’s highly unlikely to involve ground troops, only an 8% chance of that happening by August.

2. Dimonah Reactor Targeted?

Iran has threatened to target Israel’s Dimonah nuclear reactor in the Negev Desert.

The market sees a 15% chance the home to Israel’s nuclear program is struck by end of June.

What about Iran’s underground Fordow enrichment facility?

38% chance that it’s hit by US forces before end of the month.

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3. Targeting the Ayatollah?

The start of the conflict spiked odds for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to be out of power in 2025 to 40%.

An Iranian missile strike on an Israeli hospital on Thursday sent the odds up even further to 62% after comments from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz that “this man should not be allowed to continue to exist.”

Khamenei has not been seen in public since June 13, and there’s a 52% chance it happens (including on video) this month.

4. Closing the Strait?

One major piece of leverage Iran has is its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz waterway.

To underscore this, Iran flexed a video of its attack boats in an underground facility near the Gulf.

But the market sees this as a fairly unlikely outcome: 34% chance Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz this year.

5. Nuclear Deal or Nuclear Test?

Despite what is looking more like an all out war between Israel and Iran, a US-Iranian nuclear deal this year is still a 50-50 prospect.

This is far more likely than Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon (12% odds).

But the odds for any type of nuclear detonation this year have seen some sharp spikes in June.