What is The Oracle?

The Oracle is the first news product from Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market. 

Our goal is to help you understand the world more clearly through the lens of prediction markets. We’ve already begun highlighting interesting market moves on our X account, and this newsletter is the next step in this process.

The Oracle will comb through the 1,000+ individual markets on Polymarket to find insights about the news you might have missed. It will look at how the political judgment of pundits and experts stacks up to the wisdom of traders from all around the world. And you’ll develop the muscle memory to view world events probabilistically and realistically, and hopefully understand it a little better in the process.

Why News?

We are in a misinformation pandemic. Our feeds are ranked algorithmically and promote only the most incendiary and addictive content. The pundit class have proven themselves unable to grapple with the complex world we live in. 

As a consequence, trust in institutions, and with it our shared sense of reality, is on a multi-decade downtrend. Prediction markets are the best tool we have to fight back against bullshit, clickbait, and propaganda. They work by rewarding participants who make good predictions, and punishing those who don’t.

This newsletter is a core part of the Polymarket mission, to provide not only the world’s best prediction market platform, but also to share the most valuable insights and forecasts produced by market activity with the wider public.

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity - financial, investment or otherwise - or any particular market or product. All information has been aggregated from public Polymarket markets.

Stay up-to-date

After you sign up to this (always free) Substack you will receive at least two weekly emails: one roundup at the beginning of each week with our notes on the most interesting market movements we can find, and one longer midweek article that is a deep dive into a single event or market.

We’ll also send you occasional breaking alerts when warranted.