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GRAY ZONE
Traders see 1-in-6 odds of a NATO-Russia clash this year. But the real risk may lie in events that won’t trigger a YES resolution
Jun 12
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Polymarket
and
Jonathan Masters
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3
6
MAINE SQUEEZE
Democratic operative TheMaineWonk on the Trump-like antifragility of Graham Platner PLUS how to watch Maine on election night.
Jun 10
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
20
2
5
THE ARGENTINA MODEL
Hedge fund manager Chris DeMuth Jr. on why Latin America is going the way of Argentina PLUS eBay, SpaceX, and Warner Bros M&A update
Jun 5
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Polymarket
and
Will Ward
38
1
10
May 2026
THE MATH OF DEFEAT
Hedge fund manager on the inevitability of US defeat in Iran
May 29
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
69
11
10
SLEEPING GIGANTE?
Are World Cup traders overlooking the defending champs? PLUS: The Norway paradox, bracket path dependency, and U.S. home cooking
May 28
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Neil Paine
and
Polymarket
24
6
BASS FISHING
Can a reality TV bad boy burn down the career of LA's mayor?
May 20
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Polymarket
and
Will Ward
40
10
10
ARMS RACE
Democratic operative on what the Supreme Court’s Callais ruling means for the midterms
May 1
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
27
3
8
April 2026
COPYCAT
Here are the 10 most copied Polymarket wallets
Apr 24
•
Polymarket
,
Will Ward
, and
Stand.Trade
48
10
3
The NBA Playoffs Are a Different Sport
Adventures in hoops modeling, and why the market is sleeping on these four teams
Apr 18
•
Polymarket
and
Neil Paine
28
2
3
PHANTOM TOLLBOOTH
Iran ceasefire is untenable and changes nothing: Energy trader
Apr 8
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
107
25
20
BANK ROLLED
Why the Houthis Aren’t closing the Bab al-Mandab…Yet
Apr 7
•
Polymarket
46
4
4
NEW: Polymarket Tools for Journalists
On March 2nd, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote this about the Iran war:
Apr 2
•
Polymarket
and
Dhruv Gupta
46
6
10
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