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THE LONG GOODBYE
Why Christine Lagarde is likely heading for the ECB exit
Jul 24
•
Polymarket
19
3
PLATNER MULTIVERSE
The hidden math inside every Polymarket contract
Jul 23
•
Polymarket
and
Werner K. Zagrebbi
32
2
8
The Hormuz Reopening Gap
The Brent-WTI spread has not caught up to Polymarket
Jul 16
•
Polymarket
and
Terry Lee
32
9
8
THE TOTENBERG EFFECT
How Polymarket traders reacted to NPR fake news
Jul 10
•
Polymarket
and
Werner K. Zagrebbi
29
1
5
Introducing Polymarket Institutional Research
Issue 1: Anthropic Right Tail Underpriced?
Jul 8
•
Polymarket
54
8
12
June 2026
PILL MILL
The art & science of FDA drug forecasting
Jun 24
•
Polymarket
and
Akshay Kumar
30
2
6
GRAY ZONE
Traders see 1-in-6 odds of a NATO-Russia clash this year. But the real risk may lie in events that won’t trigger a YES resolution
Jun 12
•
Polymarket
and
Jonathan Masters
20
4
6
MAINE SQUEEZE
Democratic operative TheMaineWonk on the Trump-like antifragility of Graham Platner PLUS how to watch Maine on election night.
Jun 10
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
21
2
5
THE ARGENTINA MODEL
Hedge fund manager Chris DeMuth Jr. on why Latin America is going the way of Argentina PLUS eBay, SpaceX, and Warner Bros M&A update
Jun 5
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
40
5
14
May 2026
THE MATH OF DEFEAT
Hedge fund manager on the inevitability of US defeat in Iran
May 29
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
72
11
10
SLEEPING GIGANTE?
Are World Cup traders overlooking the defending champs? PLUS: The Norway paradox, bracket path dependency, and U.S. home cooking
May 28
•
Neil Paine
and
Polymarket
25
6
BASS FISHING
Can a reality TV bad boy burn down the career of LA's mayor?
May 20
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
40
10
10
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