Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Podcast
Notes
Archive
About
Latest
Top
Discussions
GAME TIME
Pro trader”Prince Hal” reveals his election night game plan
Nov 3
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
12
3
October 2026
BOOTS ON THE GROUND
85% chance of a US ground invasion of Iran: Supply chain expert
Oct 29
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
41
3
5
SHY HILTON VOTERS
Can the "Hunter Biden laptop 2.0" break Democrats’ stranglehold on California politics?
Oct 23
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
20
7
ZOOM OUT
Do you make these prediction market data mistakes?
Oct 19
•
Polymarket
19
7
NEW WAYS TO LOSE
From BobaGate to the Debate Belch, does Graham Platner’s understudy have the juice?
Oct 14
•
Polymarket
23
2
9
HOW HIGH?
Are central banks running out of room to hike?
Oct 9
•
Polymarket
22
2
6
SOURCES & METHODS
Veteran journalist Mark Halperin reveals how to cultivate political sources, and what his are telling him comes after the midterm 'bloodbath'
Oct 7
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
19
1
4
JUST WIN BABY
Raiders' playoff odds 3X’d in three weeks. A value investor's guide to deciding if the 3-0 start is signal or noise
Oct 1
•
Polymarket
and
Judah Fortgang
18
1
2
September 2026
SECOND OPINION
The price of time (in FDA approvals)
Sep 28
•
Polymarket
and
Akshay Kumar
18
6
TEXAS IS BORDERLINE
Forget the Senate. These four House races along the southern border have gotten hot, and are testing the wisdom of the recent GOP gerrymander
Sep 23
•
Polymarket
and
Eventual
27
3
10
BOTTLENECK BOYZ
Doug O’Laughlin of SemiAnalysis: on chip manufacturing insta-experts, H100 depreciation, and what a real AI bust would look like
Sep 18
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
24
3
6
SLOP OF WAR
Historian Walter Russell Mead on Trump's real Iran calculus, Ukraine game changers and the race to succeed Trump
Sep 15
•
Polymarket
and
Will Ward
45
12
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts
