🔮 TRUMP 💔 MUSK
5 Polymarkets on what’s next in the breakup of the century
Looking at over two dozen active Polymarkets on the Trump-Musk feud that erupted last week, there is no sign that the rift will be over anytime soon.
Here is where Polymarket traders think the situation is going:
1. Short-Term Reconciliation Unlikely
The Trump-Musk reconciliation by Friday Polymarket says a lot.
The largest drop in odds for a patch-up came after Trump appeared on ABC and said he was uninterested in speaking with Musk:
These comments sent the odds of a quick reconciliation plummeting from 35% to just 14%.
Over the weekend, Musk extended an olive branch by deleting his most inflammatory tweets and posting approvingly about Trump’s response to the clashes in LA.
How will this end?
It’s unclear what the exact off-ramp will be, but odds of a reconciliation by Friday have fallen to just 10%.
Traders believe it is much more likely that Musk apologizes to Trump by July (🔮 23%) than vice-versa (🔮 3%).
2. BBB Remains On-Track
The biggest disagreement between Trump and Musk is Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, which Elon has blasted for expanding the deficit.
Despite opposition from a handful of Republicans including Ron Johnson and Josh Hawley, there is no sign that the reconciliation bill has been delayed by the feud.
And while Musk has held off on attacking the bill in recent days, he is unlikely to fully reverse course:
Only a 9% chance Elon comes out in support of the BBB by the end of July.
3. SpaceX Will Continue to Serve NASA
On Friday, Elon threatened to decommission the Dragon spacecraft used to ferry US astronauts to the International Space Station.
Just hours later, he reversed-course on the threat, and the market believes him: 98% chance of another Dragon mission to the ISS this year.
There has also been virtually no change in the number of forecasted SpaceX launches for 2025, implying that the close relationship with NASA is not in danger.
4. Most Entertaining Outcomes Unlikely
Despite Elon’s mantra that the “most entertaining outcome is the most likely,” Polymarket traders are dubious about the more extreme scenarios that were thrown around late last week.
Trump impeached in 2025?: 🔮 11%
5. No Serious Threat To Musk’s Empire
After the feud erupted, commentators warned that Trump could use the immense powers of the presidency to go after Musk’s government contracts and subsidies.
The stock market reacted swiftly, shaving more than 15% off the Tesla market cap over the last week.
But Polymarket traders don’t seem to believe there’s a serious threat to Elon’s business empire: only a 9% chance that he loses the world’s richest man title by August.
Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.
Elon deleted tweets, Trump deleted 15% off Tesla. That’s not a feud, it’s a foreclosure.
Well done. Probably your best one yet! So many cool markets.