🔮 This Substack Writer Made 2.5X in Two Weeks Betting on a Polish Election Upset
How “Prophet” won big on Polymarket by fading the consensus odds and what he’s betting on now
In the final round of the Polish election Sunday, conservative Karol Nawrocki, a newcomer to the Polish political scene, scored a huge upset after having trailed in the odds for most of the campaign.
On Polymarket, big upsets mean big wins for forecasters who correctly fade the consensus.
One forecaster, "Prophet," a full-time prediction market trader and author of Prophet's Notes, scored a big payday and also shared his trades in real time to his readers on Substack. He spoke with The Oracle on how he constructed his trade and what he’s betting on now.
The following interview with Prophet has been edited for length. All answers are his own.
Tell us about your background and what gives you an edge in political betting.
I've been a full-time bettor on Polymarket since early last year, focusing on geopolitics, elections, and interest rates while avoiding sports where I have zero alpha. My ability to see through media misinformation and propaganda gives me an edge in the political markets.
Walk us through your Polish election bet. What was the initial consensus?
Polish elections typically go to a second round. Initially, I agreed with the consensus favoring Trzaskowski. But after the first round on May 18, something surprising happened: right-wing candidates collectively got over 50% of the vote, which was much stronger than polls predicted. This completely changed my analysis.
What was your thesis for the second round?
My main contrarian point was that the majority of first-round right-wing voters would support Nawrocki in the runoff. Unlike the previous election where voters wanted to balance a right-wing government with a left-wing president, this time we had a left-wing government. I believed those voters would align with their beliefs and support the right-wing candidate. I was proven right: over 90% of them supported Nawrocki.
What were the key issues driving this election?
Several factors were at play: the current government's unfulfilled promises, the unpopular EU migration pact, and concerns about the European Union gaining more power at Poland's expense. There's a clear divide: the left wing aligns more with the EU, while the right wing opposes expanded EU power.
On Polymarket, Trzaskowski had a big lead through most of the campaign. Why do you think that was?
There was definitely a bias in prediction markets towards the incumbent party. Trzaskowski was popular as Warsaw's mayor and had run for president before: he was well-known. In contrast, Nawrocki wasn't well-known at all. He was head of the Institute of National Remembrance and only received support from the opposition party recently. The betting markets seemed to overweight name recognition.
There's been talk about anti-incumbent sentiment globally. How did that play into this election?
There is a general rightward movement, but I want to clarify something important: the main opposition party supporting Nawrocki isn't the same as Poland's version of AfD or MAGA—that would be Konfederacia. However, there are similarities between the old and new right in Poland, and anti-establishment sentiment was definitely a factor.
I noticed Nawrocki's odds briefly rose to 51% after the first round. What happened there?
The initial reaction to the first-round results showing a right-wing majority fueled that rise. But then there was an intense negative media campaign against Nawrocki. They accused him of everything from stealing an apartment from an old man to being a pimp when he worked as a hotel security guard. They even dug up his past as a boxer and claimed he was a hooligan who got into street fights with soccer gangs. It was like a "Trump effect," the accusations were so extreme and wild that they eventually backfired, making people skeptical.
Can you elaborate on that media campaign?
One key moment was when Prime Minister Donald Tusk went on national television, practically trembling with anger, and started telling this story about how they'd discovered Nawrocki was essentially a gangster, a hooligan, a pimp. The journalist asked him for proof, and Tusk named one person as his source, a minor celebrity. It turned out this very person had been accused of libel three times and lost in court each time. So it wasn't exactly a trustworthy source. I believe this moment actually turned public opinion, people saw that many of the accusations were probably lies. Some things were true: Nawrocki did come from a poor family in Gdansk and knew some rough characters, but people remembered the inspiring story of someone rising from poverty to potentially becoming president.
How did you execute your trades?
I initially took a small long position on Nawrocki before the first round because I thought he was undervalued: the odds were around 85-15 when I believed it should be closer to 70-30. My original plan was to sell after the spike following the first round and then double down on Trzaskowski. I also made a big early win betting on other platforms that Nawrocki would make it to the second round. I got 1:1 odds on what seemed like a sure bet to me.
But after seeing the first-round results, I didn't sell. Instead, I sat down, ran the numbers, and realized I needed to buy a lot more Nawrocki. I allocated around 20% of my bankroll to him. What was really curious to me was that his odds kept going down even more. Everyone in Poland was saying it was 50-50, but Polymarket had it at 80-20 for Trzaskowski at some points. I couldn't fathom how someone could buy at those odds, so I kept slowly buying more throughout the two weeks. On election day, I bought the most because the odds spiked even higher on no new data at all.
How profitable were these trades? And were you watching what other traders on Polymarket were doing?
I made around 2.5x my bankroll from all the trades combined. I was trying to read through the comments because I didn't recognize the top traders. I think there are a lot of new traders after the US elections. I noticed many Romanian traders, and my thesis is that they thought the results would mirror what happened in Romania, where a right-wing candidate initially led, then there was a reversal, and finally the left-wing candidate won. I think those Romanians who made money on that trade thought the same situation would repeat in Poland. I saw a lot of comments in the Romanian language, so it seemed like Romanian groupthink that skewed the market.
What are the geopolitical implications of this result, particularly for Ukraine?
Contrary to some reports, the new president is very pro-Ukraine. He's actually on Russia's kill list because he toppled Soviet statues as head of the Institute of National Remembrance. The Russians really don't like him. The pro-Ukraine stance will definitely continue. What might change is that there's more security we won't send Polish troops to Ukraine—there was a general perception that the governing party was more willing to bend to European pressure on that front.
However, Poland's position in the EU will likely change. Prime Minister Donald Tusk will have a weaker position because he now has a weaker mandate, and the right wing is generally against EU expansion. There will probably be a lot more points of contention between the European Union and Poland now.
Do you see any other political developments coming in Poland?
I have a thesis that Poland might see a snap election later this year. There are two ways this could happen. First, the ruling coalition could break apart; there are three parties in it, and two candidates from those parties barely made the election threshold for parliamentary seats. They may become scared that because they didn't fulfill their promises, their position is weaker, so they might try to break the coalition and say ‘we made a mistake, now we want to fix it and be more straightforward.’ The coalition was already very fragile even before this election. Second, Nawrocki might go on the offensive and refuse to sign the budget bill that comes around September. If the budget isn't approved in time, the government is forced into snap elections. Either scenario could trigger early elections.
What are you betting on next?
Not as big as the Poland election, but I have two running geopolitical theses: no ceasefire in Ukraine, which I’ve been betting on since December. I’m also betting on no ceasefire in Gaza since March / April. The Gaza thesis is more and more obvious based on two things: Hamas’ having hostages is their only leverage so they will keep them till the very end and Israel’s ultimate goal is to eliminate Hamas, with freeing hostages as only a secondary priority. Combining both makes a ceasefire unlikely.
Where can people follow your writing and trades?
My Polymarket profile is public for transparency and tracking results. I post my results publicly every month. I also have a Substack called Prophet's Notes where I'll share tips on Polymarket trading and political betting strategies. In a few days I’ll be sharing a long post that has a collection of all my advice for new traders on prediction markets, as there are a bunch of leaks that I see new traders making all the time that are pretty easy to fix.
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