🔮 VP Debate Preview: Coach vs Couch

PLUS: Blue States Moving Right • The Future of Eric Adams • Middle East Regional War? • Port Strike

Sep 30, 2024

Polymarket’s general election odds (🔮 50% - 49% Harris lead) are steady headed into Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate. Here’s how it’s likely to play out:

Walz is the heavy favorite to win the Ipsos post-debate tracking poll, while Vance is a slight favorite to get more speaking time.

What Vance Will Say

Tampon (38%): Can Vance deploy Trump’s signature nickname of “Tampon Tim” with the same panache as his boss?

Border 5+ times (93%): Trump and Vance are usually favored to mention the border multiple times at speaking events.

Fentanyl (83%): Vance chronicled his family struggles with addiction and ties the fentanyl crisis to his China and immigration hawkishness.

Haitian (30%): Vance has argued that the Hatians-eating-pets story that got Trump into trouble was a win for getting the media to pay attention to the “suffering of the American people.”

Stolen Valor (24%): Republicans spent much of August attacking Walz for incorrectly stating his military accomplishments, but this talking point has died down recently.

What Walz Will Say

Abortion 5+ times (22%): Dems hold a 32-point lead in public opinion on abortion rights, but this issue has fallen to 8th most important for voters, according to new research from Pew.

Football (69%): Walz attended a Michigan football game over the weekend, part of his strategy to undo Democrats’ cold shoulder to America’s most popular sport over brain injury risk.

Weird (48%): Walz could reprise his signature hit on Vance that may have earned him the VP slot.

Couch (8%): Walz referenced the Vance couch meme around the time of his selection, but it’s a very deep cut at this point.

Yale (46%): Walz has used Vance’s Ivy League background as a hit in earlier speeches: "He's Yale Law guy. I'm public school teacher.”

Election Odds and Ends

Trouble in Michigan?: Axios reported Sunday that Michigan Rep Elissa Slotkin told donors that internal polls have Harris “underwater” in Michigan. Current Polymarket odds (🔮 66% Harris wins Michigan) have Michigan as the strongest swing state for Harris. Does Slotkin know something the market doesn’t? Or is this a scare tactic to open donor wallets?

Hurricane Hits NC: Odds for North Carolina have not budged (🔮 56% odds Trump wins NC), despite both parties attempting to leverage this weekend’s hurricane damage.

Pennsylvania Ticket Splitters: There’s still a significant gap between the odds for Harris to win the critical state (🔮51% Harris) and the odds for Democrat Bob Casey to hang onto his senate seat (🔮84% Casey).

Odds of Second Debate Rising: The odds of a second presidential debate have been trending up over the last week (🔮34% odds). Is Trump coming around?

What States will Trend Red?: There seems to be a distinct rightward trend in large blue states, even though the Democrats are still favored to retake the House (🔮 63% odds).

Share The Oracle by Polymarket

War in the Middle East

On Friday, it was reported that Israel killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in airstrikes on a south Beirut compound. Israel continued to strike targets in Lebanon over the weekend.
On Sunday, Israel hit Houthi targets in the port city of Hudaydah in Yemen, demonstrating long-range capabilities that threaten Iran.
Iran has vowed revenge but has not attacked yet.
American officials have said they weren’t involved in the strikes, and do not want a wider war, but just approved an $8.7b aid package for Israel.

What Markets Say

Over the weekend, the markets priced in a significantly greater risk of an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, amid reports that Israel is massing hundreds of tanks along the border.

The key questions now are to what extent will Iran get involved, and whether this could drag the US into the conflict. Lina Khatib of Chatham House argues that the Israeli strikes could mark “the beginning of the end for Iran’s regional influence in the Middle East.”

Polymarket traders seem to be considering more scenarios where Israel strikes Iran (🔮57% chance before end of 2024) before Iran launches any counterattack (🔮36% odds of Iran attack on Israel before November). There is still a low risk for direct US military action against Iran over the next month.

Can the Port Strike be Avoided?

There is still a narrow chance to avoid the Longshoreman's strike scheduled to begin after midnight tonight. Many analysts predict that a strike could do significant damage to the economy, and odds of a recession by May have ticked up several points in recent days.

Does Eric Adams Hang On?

New York City Mayor Eric Adams pleaded not guilty to federal corruption charges filed last week. Adams has vowed to fight the charges and stay on as mayor.