On August 1, five days before he would be tapped as Kamala Harris’ running mate, Minnesota governor Tim Walz was sitting at 5% on Polymarket: a 19-to-1 underdog.
Even on August 5 - the day before he was selected - Walz was tied with Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, yet many veteran reporters insisted that Shapiro was a lock all the way to the moment that black SUVs rolled into the Walz driveway.
So how did Walz, who was not seen as a contender until late in the game, come out of nowhere to win the veepstakes? Did Polymarket users get it “wrong” by not favoring him until the morning of his selection?
In post-Biden dropout VP polling conducted in early August, Walz was among the least-known candidates in the field, with 71% of voters responding “unsure / never heard of.”
July 21 - Biden Out. The day Biden dropped out, Arizona senator Mark Kelly was leading Polymarket’s Dem VP odds at 38.3%. Walz was in eighth at 1.4%, behind Hillary Clinton.
July 23 - "Weird". This may be the moment that Walz became a contender on Morning Joe:
Walz: We do not like what has happened where we can't even go to Thanksgiving dinner with our uncle because you end up in some weird fight that is unnecessary, and I think bringing people back together...
Scarborough: [laughing]
Walz: Well it's true these guys are just weird
In the days after the Morning Joe appearance, search traffic for the terms “Trump weird” and “Vance weird” spiked, a signal that the Walz label had entered the conversation. But this trend did not boost Walz’s odds immediately. In fact, peak “weird” coincided with the all-time high for Shapiro.
July 29-31
Cooper Out. North Carolina governor Roy Cooper removed himself from consideration by a tweet posted on July 29. The reason was reported as concerns about a Republican lieutenant governor who could attempt to seize power if he vacated his seat.
Kelly Vetting. Also in this period a series of hit pieces appeared on Mark Kelly. Fox News ran a story on the 28th detailing Kelly’s involvement with a Spy balloon company. And on the 31st a Washington Post article mocked Kelly for his China business ties, multi-level marketing promos, and paid speeches in the UAE. The campaign worked: Kelly began the 29th’ with a 40% chance. By the release of the Post story on the 31st, he had cratered to 8.4%.
Peak Shapiro. But even these two leading contenders being out of the picture did not immediately help Walz. Instead, Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro was becoming the overwhelming favorite, rising to a high of 77% on July 31. What headlines were Polymarket users seeing during Shapiro-mania?
Pennsylvania: Democratic strategists were emphasizing the obvious fact that Shapiro was the popular governor of Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping point state.
Vetting Reports: Reports of Shapiro meetings with the Harris vetting team.
Rally in Philly: Reports that Harris was set to begin her swing state rally in Philadelphia accompanied by her running mate.
August 3 - Fetterman Wormtongue? Reporting emerged that Sen. Fetterman of Pennsylvania was “expressing concerns” to the Harris team about Shapiro’s excessive personal ambition, implying that it would be hard for him to play the role of a docile VP. It would later be reported that this line of attack contributed to Harris’ hesitations. At this point, Shapiro’s odds were still in the 70s, however, Walz was starting to gain momentum, doubling to 20% on the day.
August 4 - Interview Day. By this point it’s clear that Walz and Shapiro were the only two still under consideration: no other candidate would trade above 10% from this day onward. On the afternoon of Sunday August 4, Harris held a final round of interviews with both candidates. Subsequent reporting indicates that Walz and Harris clicked, but Shapiro was a different story:
August 4-6: Last Minute Hesitations? Reports differ on when exactly Harris made up her mind. Some suggest it was on the 4th, after the final round of interviews. Other reporting, however, suggests that Harris had not made up her mind finally until the day of the announcement on August 6.
Looking at the Polymarket numbers, it seems like the market too was unsure. A granular view of the Walz-Shapiro chart shows that the leading candidate switched places multiple times in the last day. Was this last-minute agonizing inside the Harris campaign? Or just market noise?
So What Happened to Shapiro?
It’s fairly easy to imagine an alternate reality where Shapiro was picked and we are reading about how Harris made the obvious choice to play the Pennsylvania card. So what happened?
There are at least three theories in play:
MAGA Psyops? After Walz’s selection, an article ran in the Bulwark, the mouthpiece of the never-Trump Republicans, in which several Trump operatives take credit for an anti-Shapiro whisper campaign.
This campaign centered on the issue of Israel, as Republicans sought to amplify the widening divide within the pro- and anti-Israel factions of the left. The strategy was akin to arming both sides of a war: on one side, MAGA provocateurs stoked cries of “genocide Josh,” ie that Shapiro was too close to Israel while at the same time amplifying the backlash, ie the accusations of anti-Semitism lobbed against Shapiro critics. Ironically, Walz is also a strong supporter of Israel, but somehow managed to avoid getting dragged into this fight.
Cold Case? Another issue that swirled on Twitter and social media comments was the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s decision to reopen a contested murder case that Shapiro had presided over as Attorney General. Could this have been part of the MAGA psyops? Or a true last-minute vetting hiccup?
Pure Vibes. Or perhaps Walz just made a stronger case for himself, amid concerns over Shapiro’s ambitions. In his final interview, he is reported to have told Harris:
“I’m at the end of my career. This is not about me. This is about America’s working families... And if I have to run through a brick wall, if I have to do the hard things. I’m willing to do it because I’m not angling for anything else.”
Perhaps Walz simply came off as a better junior partner for the campaign, while Shapiro was busy autographing yard signs?
Some have criticized prediction markets’ performance regarding the VP race. Shouldn’t the all-knowing market have seen into the future and shown Walz as the favorite? But this seems like a stretch for a situation decided at the last-minute by a single person. And there is much evidence that the decision had as much to do with late-breaking problems with Shapiro as the merits of Walz. Looking back at the chart, we can see several key moments where the Polymarket odds were ahead of the conventional wisdom. They:
Took Walz seriously at a time when many pundits were focusing on Shapiro or Kelly, showing him moving up as "weird" went viral
Called-out the decline of Mark Kelly amid the barrage of oppo research
Flagged the serious last-minute troubles with Shapiro and the final Walz surge
Where Does This Leave the Race?
While it’s too early for polling to pick up any changes in the race based on the VP pick, Polymarket’s election tracker has seen two notable moves in the last 24 hours.
All Tied Up. Kamala Harris has pulled even with Trump for the first time in the race.
Pennsylvania Tightening. Since the announcement, the Democratic ticket’s odds have declined by about five points to put the critical state of Pennsylvania back in a tie.
Disclaimer
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Great information. Sounds like Shapiro wants a future Presidential bid if Harris loses in 2024.
K