Welcome to The Oracle by Polymarket

THIS WEEK: • Will Biden Finish His Term? • Shapiro Flips Kelly for Dem VP • Vance Hotswap Incoming? • Will Maduro Win in Venezuela? • Olympics Predictions

Jul 29, 2024

The Oracle is the first news product from Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market.

Our goal is to help you understand the world more clearly through the lens of prediction markets. We’ve already begun highlighting interesting market moves on our X account, and this newsletter is the next step in this process.

The Oracle will comb through the 1,000+ individual markets on Polymarket to find insights about the news you might have missed. It will look at how the political judgment of pundits and experts stacks up to the wisdom of traders from all around the world. And you’ll develop the muscle memory to view world events probabilistically and realistically, and hopefully understand it a little better in the process.

Why News?

We are in a misinformation pandemic. Our feeds are ranked algorithmically and promote only the most incendiary and addictive content. The pundit class have proven themselves unable to grapple with the complex world we live in.

As a consequence, trust in institutions, and with it our shared sense of reality, is on a multi-decade downtrend. Prediction markets are the best tool we have to fight back against bullshit, clickbait, and propaganda. They work by rewarding participants who make good predictions, and punishing those who don’t.

Good decision rewarded; bad decisions punished

This newsletter is a core part of the Polymarket mission: to provide not only the world’s best prediction market platform, but also to share the valuable insights and forecasts produced by market activity with the wider public.

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity - financial, investment or otherwise - or any particular market or product. All information has been aggregated from public Polymarket markets.

Stay up-to-date

After you sign up to this (always free) Substack you will receive at least two weekly emails: one roundup at the beginning of each week with our notes on the most interesting market movements we can find, and one longer midweek article that is a deep dive into a single event or market.

We’ll also send you occasional breaking alerts when warranted.

Below, you will find our first weekly roundup.

Events driving the Biden resignation market

Biden Resignation Odds Decline Despite Health Rumors

After the CNN debate that doomed Biden’s reelection bid, Polymarket launched a market on whether he would complete his first term. The market was above 90% in late June, but trended steadily downwards to a low of 46% on July 21, the day of Biden’s exit from the campaign.

In the days that followed, the odds of Biden completing his term continued to improve, despite rumors swirling online that he was on the brink of death– including one tweet from Laura Loomer that did over 40 million impressions.

Biden’s odds of completing his term rallied after he was seen in public and made an address from the Oval Office on July 24.

Vance Hotswap Incoming?

The rollout of JD Vance as Trump’s running mate has gotten off to a rocky start, with controversy surrounding his comments on abortion, the devil, and “childless cat ladies.” The drama has been amplified by viral memes based on a fake quote from his book Hillbilly Elegy suggesting he had sex with a couch as a teenager.

The tweet that mainstream media is afraid to show you

Amid chatter that Trump may replace him on the ticket, Polymarket launched a Vance VP replacement market on July 22. The market traded as low as 4% on launch, but has tripled since.

If a candidate swap occurs, it would be the first time a vice presidential candidate has been replaced on the ticket since 1972 when Thomas Eagleton was dropped as George McGovern’s running mate after reports surfaced that Eagleton had received electroshock therapy for depression.

Shapiro Flips Kelly For Dem VP

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has taken the lead over Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona in the Democratic veepstakes. The move coincides with reporting from Mark Halperin on Friday morning that Kelly had run into issues in the vetting process.

Other Democratic strategists are reportedly bullish on Shapiro's ability to help Harris win the likely tipping-point state of Pennsylvania. Nate Silver estimates that a home-state boost for Shapiro as VP would end up putting Harris over the top in the electoral college about 1% of the time.

Venezuela: Maduro Favored to Keep Power Amid Election Dispute

How Maduro’s odds changed over election day

On Sunday, Venezuela held a presidential election pitting 11-year incumbent Nicolás Maduro against challenger Edmundo González. Media reports before the election focused on the strength of Venezuela’s opposition and popular dissatisfaction with Maduro, while tracking polls showed González with a consistent double-digit lead.

However, Polymarket odds were pessimistic on González, with the chances for a Maduro victory hovering in the 70-80% range throughout July.

As votes were counted on election night, media coverage for Gonzalez was largely positive and odds for a González win hit as high as 55%. An image circulated on social media of government workers with screens in the background allegedly showing a blowout win for the opposition.

However around midnight EST, Venezuela’s National Election Council declared Maduro the winner, and Polymarket rapidly priced in a victory for the incumbent, despite challenges from the opposition and denunciations by several governments. As of publication, Maduro is priced at 94% chance to retain power.

US Favored to Win Most Gold in Paris

The 2024 Summer Olympics kicked off in Paris over the weekend. Polymarket currently has 54 individual markets on the games, the largest of which are most total medals and most gold medals. As of publication, China is leading the United States 5-3 in gold, out of a total of 329 events, with the U.S. still favored to take the most gold overall.