The Oracle by Polymarket

The Oracle by Polymarket

BOOTS ON THE GROUND

85% chance of a US ground invasion of Iran: Supply chain expert

Polymarket's avatar
Will Ward's avatar
Polymarket and Will Ward
Oct 29, 2026

Signal not Noise, the #2 rising global publication on Substack, is written by “AJ,” a former supply chain security director for a Western military and private multinationals.

His geopolitical calls don’t come from IR theory or psychoanalyzing Trump posts, but from a logistics-focused open source approach.

Over the past ten years he has built a multi-indicator system that tracks the physical precursors of war: blood supply logistics, changes to draft laws, troop advisories, and even Land Cruiser production.

Today, those indicators are all pointing one way.

This interview has been edited for length. All answers are his own.


Polymarket has a fairly low chance of a US ground invasion of Iran this year. If there were a market for an invasion before 2028, what odds would you give?

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