THIS WEEK: • Will Biden Finish His Term? • Shapiro Flips Kelly for Dem VP • Vance Hotswap Incoming? • Will Maduro Win in Venezuela? • Olympics Predictions
Polymarket is rather addictive, and I find myself referring to it more than a few times in the course of the day.
Kind of a derivatives trading market on current events. The math and the trading mechanism behind it seem much more sophisticated than mere betting sites. And it benefits from people willing to act with conviction and put up a buck (or bitcoin) or two, or in some cases rather a lot; instead of the opinions of the hapless people who just happen to answer an annoying call from a professional pollster.
We are likely to see a lot of weird conditional probabilities in the next few months leading to the election, and it will be interesting to see how Polymarket handles them.
Great and valid points, Drake. Polymarket sounds like a fascinating and engaging platform. How do you think it compares to traditional methods of gauging public opinion, and what unique insights have you gained from using it?
I also realized they are excellent at marketing-"The world's largest prediction market."
Not who you replied to, but markets can be seen as a source of "truth". Reasons vary, but the best is probably Efficient Market Hypothesis. I have no clue what the price of gas will be in four months, but I can guarantee you the futures market will be the most accurate predictor.
Maduro pulled a similar move as Democrats in 2020. A sudden straight vertical line in the middle of the night from mass mail-in vote dumps. Biden received a record 81 million votes, 15 million more than Obama 2012, despite losing 18/19 bellweather counties and sparse attendance at his rallies. You are an election-denier if you believe Maduro and Democrats win under suspicious circumstances.
What are the odds Biden was threatened with the 25th Amendment by Barry, Nancy, and Chucky? Seymour Hersh says 100%. Sacred Democracy!
How do your odds account for fraud? There is little doubt the fraudulent mail in voting will be off the charts this year - WAPO is already running stories about delayed results - there is no way they will allow Donald Trump to be elected - it won’t happen.
So great to have this on substack
Boom
Stuff like this is awesome
Polymarket is rather addictive, and I find myself referring to it more than a few times in the course of the day.
Kind of a derivatives trading market on current events. The math and the trading mechanism behind it seem much more sophisticated than mere betting sites. And it benefits from people willing to act with conviction and put up a buck (or bitcoin) or two, or in some cases rather a lot; instead of the opinions of the hapless people who just happen to answer an annoying call from a professional pollster.
We are likely to see a lot of weird conditional probabilities in the next few months leading to the election, and it will be interesting to see how Polymarket handles them.
Great and valid points, Drake. Polymarket sounds like a fascinating and engaging platform. How do you think it compares to traditional methods of gauging public opinion, and what unique insights have you gained from using it?
I also realized they are excellent at marketing-"The world's largest prediction market."
Not who you replied to, but markets can be seen as a source of "truth". Reasons vary, but the best is probably Efficient Market Hypothesis. I have no clue what the price of gas will be in four months, but I can guarantee you the futures market will be the most accurate predictor.
Andrew, guarantee me the futures market will be the most accurate predictor? Really?
Yes, because of EMH. The market discounts all available information. Would you like to suggest any other indicator or predictor?
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I actually referenced you all in a post recently!
Maduro pulled a similar move as Democrats in 2020. A sudden straight vertical line in the middle of the night from mass mail-in vote dumps. Biden received a record 81 million votes, 15 million more than Obama 2012, despite losing 18/19 bellweather counties and sparse attendance at his rallies. You are an election-denier if you believe Maduro and Democrats win under suspicious circumstances.
What are the odds Biden was threatened with the 25th Amendment by Barry, Nancy, and Chucky? Seymour Hersh says 100%. Sacred Democracy!
Yuri, I find that you raise some controversial points about the 2020 election and comparisons to other political events.
May I ask how do you think we can ensure transparency and public trust in the election process moving forward?
Get this trash off of Substack. I don’t care if they publish here but I don’t want it as a feature of the platform. Gambling is an addiction.
It's a good thing this is a market and not a game of chance, then.
What’d you guys think of huge Biden bet last week? https://substack.com/@faybomb/note/c-63225541?r=et5uj&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
How do your odds account for fraud? There is little doubt the fraudulent mail in voting will be off the charts this year - WAPO is already running stories about delayed results - there is no way they will allow Donald Trump to be elected - it won’t happen.
Not on your terms.
These are not my terms - reality - repeat of 2020 but more cheating.
If you’re betting you have to assess the fraud factor, which is enormous and growing.
What aspects are confusing / tricky to follow?