7 Comments

I'm more optimistic about Ukraine. I believe Trump is working back channels, Orban, for example. And, don't laugh, Tucker Carlson's recent visit to Moscow.

The Middle East - more complicated but easier? I think too much BeBe, too little other actors.

Expand full comment

Yapping ??...interesting..We will see !

Expand full comment

I am not a fan of Trump, but I have seen diplomatic results occur in strange and unexpected ways, and sometimes not because of the best of intentions on the part of those who bring them about. I would therefore welcome an end to the death and destruction of these wars, although not at the expense of weakening Ukraine, even if Trump was in some way responsible for it.

Expand full comment

Heard many similar comments from Trump skeptics, some cautious optimism on Ukraine from initial readout of Putin / Zelensky calls and comments to Time

Expand full comment

What are these stats based on, wishful thinking, old women on a corner?

Expand full comment

The odds are generated by people buying and selling shares on the prediction market. A 1 min explainer video is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0CvPEYBzTI

Expand full comment

I know I used to audit the lottery.

Expand full comment