🔮 Trump: Peace Through Yapping?

Can Trump End Two Wars before Inauguration Day?

During the campaign, Donald Trump vowed to quickly end the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, perhaps even before entering office.

While Trump was short on specifics, many expected him to use his signature blend of ‘max pressure’ and thirst for deals to break the impasse in the two wars that have dragged on under Biden.

Since election day, Trump has made statements on both conflicts and held calls with Putin, Zelensky, and Netanyahu.

So, is ‘peace through yapping’ working?

On Polymarket, there are two markets that – while not a perfect proxy for the peace-by inauguration question – can give us a window into what is happening.

On Ukraine, the market “Trump wins and ends Ukraine war in 90 days” has been remarkably stable. It hit peak optimism at 53% the day after Trump won the election, and a low of 38% on November 19th, before improving to today’s level of 47%.

On Gaza, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in 2024 market (there is no active market on this conflict for 2025) hit peak pessimism of 12% on November 25 before rebounding to around 50% in early December – a huge boost in optimism considering we’re now over halfway through the month.

What explains the last-minute surge in Middle East optimism compared to the relative stability in Ukraine?

Ukraine: Charting a Stalemate

Ask your favorite AI what is happening in Ukraine and the most common word that comes up is “stalemate.”

This is exactly the story told in the above chart: where the only clear event that stands out is Trumpʻs election win, which has nothing to do with the state of the war, but fulfills one of the two conditions necessary to resolve the market to “yes.”

Looking at other recent Ukraine news, we note that many recent headlines are barely visible in the odds:

Calls with Zelensky and Putin: Trump came out of the gate fast, holding calls with Zelensky on November 6, the day after the election, and Putin on the 7th. While few details emerged from the Zelensky call, the Ukrainian president described it as an “excellent conversation.”

Skeptics of Trump’s Ukraine policy were further reassured after the call with Putin, in which Trump reportedly took a firm stance. On the Polymarket chart, these calls mark the start of a gradual slipping in chances for a quick end to the war but are hardly game changing.

US Missiles Inside Russia. Critics of Biden’s Ukraine policy have warned of the risks of allowing US and European missiles to strike inside of Russia. After months of resistance, Biden gave the green light to ATACMS strikes inside Russia in mid-November.

Russia Uses New Ballistic Missile. Russia responded to this with a wave of nuclear threats and by using a new type of nuclear-capable ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on November 21.

“No Deal if We Abandon Ukraine.” In his December 12 interview with Time after being named person of the year, Trump both acknowledged the difficulty of getting a quick deal in Ukraine and once again surprised critics who were expecting him to throw Kiev under the bus.

But despite Trump’s phone-diplomacy, and media hype about the “new chapter” weapons systems, odds for Trump to end the war within 100 days have remained stuck in coin-flip territory.

Gaza: Peace Through Pressure?

In Gaza, odds for a ceasefire by year-end have been much more volatile, reflecting both diplomatic breakthroughs and Trump’s pressure campaign.

Election Impact: Trump's November 5 victory initially appeared to hurt chances for a near-term ceasefire, perhaps in expectation that Trump would give Israel an even freer hand to continue its military operations throughout the region.

Negotiations on Hold. Pessimism peaked at 88% odds for no-deal in 2024 after Qatar announced on November 9 that the Israel-Hamas negotiation process was officially “on hold.”

Ceasefire in Lebanon. The first sign of a breakthrough came when the US and France announced a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially paving the way for progress in Gaza.

Seeing an opening after the Lebanon ceasefire, Trump turned up the heat with a series of public comments that further improved odds for a ceasefire:

• November 29: Trump-allied senator Lindsey Graham told Axios Trump wants to see a hostage deal “before inauguration.”

• December 2: Trump’s Truth Social post turned up the pressure further, warning of “hell to pay” if the hostages were still held on inauguration day.

• December 12: In Trump’s Time interview, he explicitly compared the two conflicts, seeming to show hope for faster progress in the Middle East than in Ukraine.

But even with this remarkable comeback and a new round of ceasefire talks underway, reportedly bolstered by Trump’s comments, there are still major stumbling blocks in the Gaza negotiations that reflect the current 50-50 odds, including:

• Israel's military presence in Gaza (Hamas reportedly agreed to a continued Israeli presence on Friday)

• The extent of the ceasefire (total vs. partial)

• Control of Gaza's border with Egypt

• The release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners

Yapping Only Gets You So Far

So how effective has Trump’s pregame diplomacy been?

In Gaza, the biggest moves in the odds happened well before Trump’s election - with the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in mid-October, followed by the Lebanon ceasefire deal.

But what led to these developments? It was Israel achieving decisive military victories. Israel decimated Gaza by air and land, and achieved total victory over Hezbollah, beginning with the pager attack, killing its leaders, and destroying its weapons stockpiles around Lebanon.

In Ukraine, there have been very few decisive military changes on the ground. The conquest of Kursk by Ukraine, and the introduction of new ‘game changing’ weapons by both sides have failed to move the odds significantly away from coin flip territory.

So while Trump’s pressure may have accelerated progress towards settlement in the Middle East, this was building on momentum generated by Israel’s battlefield wins.

In Ukraine, despite Trump’s high-level engagement with both sides that began the day after his election, he has been unable to talk his way out of the frozen conflict.

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