Wow. That chart at the top is insanely misleading. Glancing at it, I thought, this guy has an amazing track record. So I read the interview only to discover that he only started modelling after 2022.
Those amazingly accurate past forecasts are not actually forecasts, there just the error bars on his 20-20 hindsight academic modeling exercise. He and his model have successfully forecast exactly 0 elections.
Polymarket does not enhance its credibility by publishing bullshit like this.
Wow. That chart at the top is insanely misleading. Glancing at it, I thought, this guy has an amazing track record. So I read the interview only to discover that he only started modelling after 2022.
Those amazingly accurate past forecasts are not actually forecasts, there just the error bars on his 20-20 hindsight academic modeling exercise. He and his model have successfully forecast exactly 0 elections.
Polymarket does not enhance its credibility by publishing bullshit like this.
Good point - updated the caption to clarify
That certainly helps. Apparently I was mistaken and his 2022 results were actually a forecast?
correct, 22 was a forecast