Discussion about this post

User's avatar
forceOfHabit's avatar

Wow. That chart at the top is insanely misleading. Glancing at it, I thought, this guy has an amazing track record. So I read the interview only to discover that he only started modelling after 2022.

Those amazingly accurate past forecasts are not actually forecasts, there just the error bars on his 20-20 hindsight academic modeling exercise. He and his model have successfully forecast exactly 0 elections.

Polymarket does not enhance its credibility by publishing bullshit like this.

Expand full comment
3 more comments...

No posts