NEW: Polymarket Tools for Journalists
On March 2nd, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote this about the Iran war:
These are some fancy words. But at Polymarket, we prefer to put numbers to the proverbial kaleidoscope.
That’s why today, we are releasing our first set of tools for writers to get the most out of our free, high-quality data.
Introducing Polymarket Journalism Tools.
Here’s how they work:
Match Your Writing to Markets
Thanks to Substack’s live Polymarket embeds, anyone can easily provide up-to-date odds to their audience.
The Draft Analyzer helps you find which of the thousands of active markets at any time relate to your writing. Paste your draft (or your favorite pundit) into our text-editor to get a series of appropriate markets, filtered by volume and relevance.
See Headlines that Moved the Odds
Looking to understand why the odds evolved in the way they did? The Market Timeline plots the price history of a market with news stories highlighted at the points where odds underwent large changes.
Verify the Quality of the Signal
Given a specific market, use our Liquidity Checker to easily understand the volume, spread, trading history, and distribution of positions to verify that a market has received sufficient information to be governed by the wisdom of crowds.
Boost Liquidity on Essential Markets
Is there a polymarket that is important for your writing but are wondering if it has enough liquidity for you to feel confident in your citation?
Send us a Liquidity Request which our markets team will review and, if approved, will increase the liquidity rewards for that market. This incentivizes new market makers to enter the market and improve the price signal.
Suggest New Polymarkets
Filling out the Suggest a Market tab allows you to alert us on any topics we aren’t currently covering.
A series of questions will help you structure your idea into a tradable polymarket. Your suggestions go straight to the markets creation team.
Find the Second the Odds Moved
The PolyVideo tool allows you to sync Polymarket odds with a YouTube video (perhaps a debate, a senate hearing, or a supreme court oral argument).
Skip to the exact second that odds moved to understand what moments actually mattered.
Build your own Data Pipelines
Interested in taking a deep dive into the data for your next piece? Our API Explorer helps you ascertain how you can answer whichever question you are asking, aggregating a quick summary which can be given to any LLM-powered coding agent of your choice.
More to Come
If you are a journalist, researcher, or author working with Polymarket data, we’d love to hear from you.
Substack DMs are open.
Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.
The Market Timeline is the standout here. For accountability-based forecasting, the hardest problem isn't making predictions - it's pinning down what information was available at what moment. This closes that gap.
One tool I'd add to the list: a calibration checker for resolved markets. How often did 70% markets actually resolve YES? That's what separates a well-functioning information market from a confident but miscalibrated crowd. For anyone building a public forecasting track record - which is what I do at True Rate - historical calibration data would be the most valuable signal of all.
We now have real time crowd expectations on Polymarket as well as some cool storyline features that highlight where the market is moving, and where things are generally trending in a positive light for bets. These should give you a good idea of where to look for some really interesting stories, and whether or not those stories are going in the right direction. As with all market data, one must also be aware of issues like low liquidity, as well as "squared" positions held by those trying to manipulate the market, and always pair this type of information with best available sourcing and verification. http://midasai.trade