The Market Timeline is the standout here. For accountability-based forecasting, the hardest problem isn't making predictions - it's pinning down what information was available at what moment. This closes that gap.
One tool I'd add to the list: a calibration checker for resolved markets. How often did 70% markets actually resolve YES? That's what separates a well-functioning information market from a confident but miscalibrated crowd. For anyone building a public forecasting track record - which is what I do at True Rate - historical calibration data would be the most valuable signal of all.
We now have real time crowd expectations on Polymarket as well as some cool storyline features that highlight where the market is moving, and where things are generally trending in a positive light for bets. These should give you a good idea of where to look for some really interesting stories, and whether or not those stories are going in the right direction. As with all market data, one must also be aware of issues like low liquidity, as well as "squared" positions held by those trying to manipulate the market, and always pair this type of information with best available sourcing and verification. http://midasai.trade
The Market Timeline is the standout here. For accountability-based forecasting, the hardest problem isn't making predictions - it's pinning down what information was available at what moment. This closes that gap.
One tool I'd add to the list: a calibration checker for resolved markets. How often did 70% markets actually resolve YES? That's what separates a well-functioning information market from a confident but miscalibrated crowd. For anyone building a public forecasting track record - which is what I do at True Rate - historical calibration data would be the most valuable signal of all.
Calibration data is all on our accuracy dashboard here:
https://polymarket.com/accuracy
We now have real time crowd expectations on Polymarket as well as some cool storyline features that highlight where the market is moving, and where things are generally trending in a positive light for bets. These should give you a good idea of where to look for some really interesting stories, and whether or not those stories are going in the right direction. As with all market data, one must also be aware of issues like low liquidity, as well as "squared" positions held by those trying to manipulate the market, and always pair this type of information with best available sourcing and verification. http://midasai.trade
https://natlawreview.com/press-releases/james-p-cameron-announces-write-candidacy-lieutenant-governor-california
This is awesome
If you don't have an MCP server for it yet, we'd like to integrate it for you.