I hope everybody reads this guys piece because in the end it will only make me more money when Trump ends up winning.
The Problem with this guys model is that I don't see any mention of the low propensity voters that skew 3 to 1 for Trump and are seemingly coming out in droves.
Based on early vote data Republicans are doing far better in the early vote/vbm than in years past and Democrats are doing worse.
In the case of the Republicans it's not a case of them cannibalizing their election day vote either, it's low propensity, Trump or bust voters coming out early, which is huge for Trump.
You also have to factor in that nearly every single poll has a history of understating Trumps support, especially in the Rust Belt, which is why Kamalas own internals have her down in every swing state except for Michigan but as anyone who follows elections knows, the Rust Belt always votes together (Except 1988 when Dukakis won WI). So if Trump wins WI and PA the chances of him losing MI is very small.
Toss out all your incorrect data which predicted a Skamala win
America has spoken! No more wokeness, criminals, rapists, and fentanyl coming across OPEN border; no more discussions regarding sex changes for children, prisoners…no more tampon talk and hellyweird pedos are going down!!
Highly recommend interviewing Captain Seth Keshel. Best election analysis on substack with 50K subs.
Thanks - have reached out to him
I hope everybody reads this guys piece because in the end it will only make me more money when Trump ends up winning.
The Problem with this guys model is that I don't see any mention of the low propensity voters that skew 3 to 1 for Trump and are seemingly coming out in droves.
Based on early vote data Republicans are doing far better in the early vote/vbm than in years past and Democrats are doing worse.
In the case of the Republicans it's not a case of them cannibalizing their election day vote either, it's low propensity, Trump or bust voters coming out early, which is huge for Trump.
You also have to factor in that nearly every single poll has a history of understating Trumps support, especially in the Rust Belt, which is why Kamalas own internals have her down in every swing state except for Michigan but as anyone who follows elections knows, the Rust Belt always votes together (Except 1988 when Dukakis won WI). So if Trump wins WI and PA the chances of him losing MI is very small.
This Guy was an Idiot!!!
This didn't age well. I saw him online on x getting very aggressive with people even Nate Silver. Turns out he had no idea what he was talking about.
Toss out all your incorrect data which predicted a Skamala win
America has spoken! No more wokeness, criminals, rapists, and fentanyl coming across OPEN border; no more discussions regarding sex changes for children, prisoners…no more tampon talk and hellyweird pedos are going down!!
AND MORE MONEY WE EARN STAYS IN OUR POCKET!
The Donald is the man …
AND
CHRIST IS KING!
Seems just as non committal as anyone else.
Gallup has R+3 Nationally. They have better than 1% accuracy the last 4 Presidential cycles.
The question they ask is about Party Identification.