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Another Trump shooter?! • Trump Affair with Loomer? • 50 bps Rate Cut? • Israel invading Lebanon? • Who Will Win the World Series?

Sep 16, 2024

Trump Shooter

On Sunday afternoon, authorities stopped a second attempted assassination of Donald Trump as he golfed at his club in Doral, FL. Trump’s near-miss in July spiked his odds to win the election by 11%, but this time they barely budged. The general election has remained in a dead heat (🔮Harris 50% -Trump 49%) as the markets await more post-debate polling.

The would-be assassin has been identified as Ryan Routh, an American citizen from Hawaii who spent recent years recruiting international soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

What Markets Say

Laura Loomer and others on the right have hinted at potential ‘deep state’ ties with the shooter. Yet one fact check market on Polymarket puts a 95% chance that the FBI or Secret Service will announce that Routh acted alone.

What’s Going On with Trump and Laura Loomer?

After Trump’s debate performance, some on the right raised concerns about Laura Loomer’s proximity to Trump. She had begun traveling with the Trump campaign, helped with his debate prep and even said she’d accept the press secretary job.

But last week, media figures on the right (Milo Yiannopoulos) and left (Bill Maher) began to allege that Trump was having an affair with Loomer, prompting denials and a lawsuit threat from Loomer.

Polymarket users are bearish that a Trump-Loomer affair will be confirmed in the coming days (🔮2% chance affair confirmed before September 21). But there may be more going on under the surface.

A recent article in Politico carried quotes from Republicans in southern swing states who were concerned about Loomer’s offensive comments on Kamala Harris’ Indian heritage:

A recent NBC report notes that the key swing states of “Georgia and North Carolina have the highest share of [Indian-Americans] of any 2024 battleground at about 1.5% of the state population, followed by Pennsylvania and Michigan at 1.2% and North Carolina at 1.1%.”

Polymarket’s election markets for these two states have both shown downtrends in Trump’s election odds in recent weeks.

The Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday, September 18, with a 25 bps (quarter point) or 50 bps (half point) cut being the most likely scenarios.

Odds for a 50 bps cut shot up late last week with a WSJ article by Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed whisperer” for being Jay Powell’s favorite way to inject information into the market. Reporting from Timiraos suggested that the Fed sees inflation as cooling significantly even though the CPI (🔮59% odds for over 2.2% CPI inflation in September) remains above the Fed’s official 2% target.

What Markets Say

There is a large gap between Polymarket odds for a half point cut (🔮57% odds) and Fedwatch, which shows a 65% chance for the same event. Fedwatch data is derived from the Fed Funds Futures market which governments and large institutions use to hedge interest rate risk.

Jim Bianco has noted that closely balanced odds for 50 vs 25 bps creates uncertainty for market participants, and violates one of Powell’s core beliefs of the need to give “forward guidance” to markets. For this reason, Bianco expects another strategic leak early this week that will telegraph the outcome of Wednesday’s meeting.
Share The Oracle by Polymarket

Israel and Lebanon

On Sunday morning, reports circulated that Israel had dropped flyers on a border area with Lebanon warning residents to evacuate pending Israeli military action.

On Polymarket, odds of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon spiked to 24% before falling as it was reported that the leaflets were “not authorized”by Israel’s military command. This morning, however, more reports circulated in Israeli media suggesting that Israel may be considering a move into Lebanon to establish a buffer zone.

Go Deeper

Cross-border missile and drone attacks between Israel and Lebanon have escalated in the past year, reaching a combined high of over 9,500, according to data from Al-Jazeera.

On Sunday, a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis in Yemen was intercepted over Israel. The missile reached central Israel, which is rare given the country’s capable missile defenses, and caused a fire about ten miles from Ben Gurion Airport. Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to extract a “heavy price” for the attack.

World Series Odds: Polymarket vs Sportsbook

The World Series runs from October 25 - November 2 2024. Here’s how the latest odds from Polymarket stack up to the sportsbooks.