đŽWelcome to Crazytown
Another Trump shooter?! ⢠Trump Affair with Loomer? ⢠50 bps Rate Cut? ⢠Israel invading Lebanon? ⢠Who Will Win the World Series?
Trump ShooterÂ
On Sunday afternoon, authorities stopped a second attempted assassination of Donald Trump as he golfed at his club in Doral, FL. Trumpâs near-miss in July spiked his odds to win the election by 11%, but this time they barely budged. The general election has remained in a dead heat (đŽHarris 50% -Trump 49%) as the markets await more post-debate polling.
The would-be assassin has been identified as Ryan Routh, an American citizen from Hawaii who spent recent years recruiting international soldiers to fight in Ukraine.
What Markets Say
Laura Loomer and others on the right have hinted at potential âdeep stateâ ties with the shooter. Yet one fact check market on Polymarket puts a 95% chance that the FBI or Secret Service will announce that Routh acted alone.
Whatâs Going On with Trump and Laura Loomer?
After Trumpâs debate performance, some on the right raised concerns about Laura Loomerâs proximity to Trump. She had begun traveling with the Trump campaign, helped with his debate prep and even said sheâd accept the press secretary job.
But last week, media figures on the right (Milo Yiannopoulos) and left (Bill Maher) began to allege that Trump was having an affair with Loomer, prompting denials and a lawsuit threat from Loomer.Â
Polymarket users are bearish that a Trump-Loomer affair will be confirmed in the coming days (đŽ2% chance affair confirmed before September 21). But there may be more going on under the surface.Â
A recent article in Politico carried quotes from Republicans in southern swing states who were concerned about Loomerâs offensive comments on Kamala Harrisâ Indian heritage:Â
A recent NBC report notes that the key swing states of âGeorgia and North Carolina have the highest share of [Indian-Americans] of any 2024 battleground at about 1.5% of the state population, followed by Pennsylvania and Michigan at 1.2% and North Carolina at 1.1%.âÂ
Polymarketâs election markets for these two states have both shown downtrends in Trumpâs election odds in recent weeks.Â
First Interest Rate Cut: 25 or 50 bps?
The Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday, September 18, with a 25 bps (quarter point) or 50 bps (half point) cut being the most likely scenarios.Â
Odds for a 50 bps cut shot up late last week with a WSJ article by Nick Timiraos, known as the âFed whispererâ for being Jay Powellâs favorite way to inject information into the market. Reporting from Timiraos suggested that the Fed sees inflation as cooling significantly even though the CPI (đŽ59% odds for over 2.2% CPI inflation in September) remains above the Fedâs official 2% target.Â
What Markets Say
There is a large gap between Polymarket odds for a half point cut (đŽ57% odds) and Fedwatch, which shows a 65% chance for the same event. Fedwatch data is derived from the Fed Funds Futures market which governments and large institutions use to hedge interest rate risk.
Jim Bianco has noted that closely balanced odds for 50 vs 25 bps creates uncertainty for market participants, and violates one of Powellâs core beliefs of the need to give âforward guidanceâ to markets. For this reason, Bianco expects another strategic leak early this week that will telegraph the outcome of Wednesdayâs meeting.Â
Israel and LebanonÂ
On Sunday morning, reports circulated that Israel had dropped flyers on a border area with Lebanon warning residents to evacuate pending Israeli military action.Â
On Polymarket, odds of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon spiked to 24% before falling as it was reported that the leaflets were ânot authorizedâby Israelâs military command. This morning, however, more reports circulated in Israeli media suggesting that Israel may be considering a move into Lebanon to establish a buffer zone.Â
Go DeeperÂ
Cross-border missile and drone attacks between Israel and Lebanon have escalated in the past year, reaching a combined high of over 9,500, according to data from Al-Jazeera.Â
On Sunday, a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis in Yemen was intercepted over Israel. The missile reached central Israel, which is rare given the countryâs capable missile defenses, and caused a fire about ten miles from Ben Gurion Airport. Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to extract a âheavy priceâ for the attack.
World Series Odds: Polymarket vs SportsbookÂ
The World Series runs from October 25 - November 2 2024. Hereâs how the latest odds from Polymarket stack up to the sportsbooks.
Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.
I was hoping to see the Minnesota Twins on that World Series list.