🔮 UKRAINE SHARP
Stop listening to pundits and start following Polymarket’s smartest Ukraine forecasters
This is a guest post from Stand, a Polymarket pro trading terminal with automatic trades, live trade feeds, alerts, and more.
Like Stand’s US Elections trader writeup, we will be using Stand and Polymarket Analytics to find some of Polymarket’s sharpest geopolitical forecasters.
How to Find Accurate Forecasters on Polymarket
Sifting through trading data can be messy. There is no foolproof way to find good traders to follow.
Rankings by total profit can be misleading (distorted by a few big winning trades) as can win rate (easy to have a high win rate by sticking to consensus forecasts).
So in this article, we look at a blend of two metrics: overall win rate, and total number of positions. We searched across three categories: Ukraine, Russia, and Foreign Policy. From this search, we’ll see what we can learn from the trades of Polymarket’s top geopolitical forecasters.
Let’s dig in.
1. cqs
Ukraine Accuracy Rate: 78.1%
Total Ukraine Positions: 20
We thought long and hard before identifying the top trader in the Russia-Ukraine category. The more we dug into cqs, the more impressed we were. cqs is a top 200 trader on Polymarket, #4 in Foreign Policy, and #5 in Ukraine.
Pick any geopolitical issue and odds are he ranks in the top 25. While his bankroll isn’t as large as other traders, that’s more a function of a smaller starting size rather than win rate. Until March 2025, just after the Trump-Zelenskyy White House blow up, his record improved to an impressive 72.4% accuracy rate.
His top current positions include:
Russia and Ukraine will not agree to a ceasefire before December 31st.
“No” on if Russia will capture Kostyantynivka before end of 2025.
2. hopedieslast
Ukraine Accuracy Rate: 68.3%
Total Ukraine Positions: 12
Whether his handle is optimistic or a downer, we’ll leave that to you. But we do know that hopedieslast has derived 97% of his P&L from geopolitical markets, and sits at #1 on the topic of Russia, #4 on Ukraine, and #4 in Foreign Policy.
Let’s take a look at some of his 12 active positions:
“No” meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin (with or without Trump in the mix).
“No” US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025. This is hope’s largest non-Ukraine position, which has tripled in size since in recent months
“No” on Russia capturing Pokrovsk
“No” on Zelenskyy being Ukraine’s President by end of 2026. This is an interesting outlier position among top Ukraine traders.
3: Joe-Biden
Ukraine Accuracy Rate: 45.0%
Total Ukraine Positions: 14
Since exiting the White House Joe Biden* has become quite the Polymarket shark, ranging in markets from Super Bowl to Ukraine, where he ranks #1 in Ukraine and #1 in Foreign Policy. But, hey, what else would you expect from a former POTUS?
His top positions:
Large bet on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire NOT happening in 2025
“No” on Russia capturing Lyman, a strategically important railway junction city in eastern Ukraine, by year’s end
“No” on Russia capturing Kostyantynivka, a key railway junction near the front lines, by year’s end
* We do not actually think this is the trading profile of the 46th United States President
4. BuckMySalls
Ukraine Accuracy Rate: 75.4%
Total Ukraine Positions: 11
The Oracle covered BuckMySalls back in July. He’s no stranger to political markets, and has been particularly accurate on Ukraine. He correctly predicted that Russia and Ukraine would not have a Ceasefire in 2024. Then, he followed it up with a huge position against Trump ending the Ukraine war in the first 90 days (Spoiler: Trump did not).
At the time of this post, he has 11 active positions:
“No” on Russia and Ukraine having a ceasefire in 2024 (won)
“No” on Trump ending Ukraine war in first 90 days (won $100K+)
“No” on Ukraine recognizing Russian sovereignty over its territory by end of year
“No” on US recognizing Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory
“No” on Russia capturing Siversk, a key logistics hub for Ukraine, before January 1st
In Closing
In the same way that there is no one-click way to find smart Polymarket traders, there is not a complete uniformity in how they are betting, particularly on individual territories changing hands and on the future of Preesident Zelenskyy.
You can track their moves and more on the Polymarket leaderboard, get individualized trade alerts and data on Stand.trade, both for free.
Finally, we would love to hear from you. Who did we leave off the list? What did we miss? Tell us on X.
Disclaimer: Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Odds are time sensitive and subject to change. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.