5 Comments
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Nimrod Kamer's avatar

I wrote about a prominent poly user and his iran bets https://nimnim1.substack.com/p/george-cottrell-worst-month-on-polymarket

Lina Dikhtiaruk's avatar

the idea that you can reverse-engineer military timelines from corporate compliance deadlines is the kind of OSINT edge that makes this group's work so valuable

Laramie's avatar

"But there is almost zero chance we end up with another Ayatollah and clerical control remaining."

Shows how hard these predictions can be. Proven wrong in a few hours. Best to stay humble.

Polymarket's avatar

"Proven wrong in a few hours."

Are you sure about that?

Laramie's avatar

I read an article saying Moqtaba had been elected Supreme Leader. I Grokked whether that is the same as being "The Ayatollah." It said it was. But, you're correct. I'm not sure about it. It's quite possible the article on Zerohedge was wrong. I try to stay humble.