The biggest problem with the polls is that they are an antiquated statistical technique now characterized by bad data. Who answers a phone call from an unknown number and then is willing to give 10 minutes on their political preferences? Not many people that I know.
All of the polls claim to "weight" their data to come up with something that is closer to the national demographic. A hapless Gen Z person who happens to answer a pollster call may have his opinion weighted by a large multiple compared to a senior in Florida. And, with relatively small sample sizes relative to the voting population, this is a recipe for bad data. I suspect that the weightings, rather than the data samples, are most important in what is ultimately reported; in which case there is a high level of bias in what is claimed to be an objective statistical exercise.
Hence the advantage of a market-based approach like Polymarket. What would Eugene Fama with the efficient market hypothesis advise? Or even the mathematician William Galt at the turn of the last century with his exercise in determining the weight of the bull at the county fair?
The biggest problem with the polls is that they are an antiquated statistical technique now characterized by bad data. Who answers a phone call from an unknown number and then is willing to give 10 minutes on their political preferences? Not many people that I know.
All of the polls claim to "weight" their data to come up with something that is closer to the national demographic. A hapless Gen Z person who happens to answer a pollster call may have his opinion weighted by a large multiple compared to a senior in Florida. And, with relatively small sample sizes relative to the voting population, this is a recipe for bad data. I suspect that the weightings, rather than the data samples, are most important in what is ultimately reported; in which case there is a high level of bias in what is claimed to be an objective statistical exercise.
Hence the advantage of a market-based approach like Polymarket. What would Eugene Fama with the efficient market hypothesis advise? Or even the mathematician William Galt at the turn of the last century with his exercise in determining the weight of the bull at the county fair?