🔮The Oracle: Are Mention Markets the Future of Civic Engagement? Or Just a Lot of Fun?
Meet the Forecasters Competing to Predict what Trump and Harris will Say at the Debate
On August 12, millions around the world tuned into Donald Trump’s live interview with Elon Musk on X. At the same time, in Discord servers and chat rooms, Polymarket users were hoping to cash in on a unique series of political predictions.
They were not predicting the direction of the polls or outcome of the race. Rather, they were hoping that their bets in the latest “mention markets” would pay off. Mention markets are prediction markets that pay out if the subject mentions a certain word or phrase during a debate or other public event.
For example, 24 hours before the Musk event, some of the odds for what Trump would say were:
MAGA - 44%
Crypto - 48%
Civil War - 20%
Tampon - 15%
Someone who bought “tampon” at 15% would make 5.6x their money if Donald Trump deployed his new nickname of “Tampon Tim” for Democratic VP candidate Tim Walz. Or the bet would expire worthless if Trump didn’t use the word.
In his chat with Elon, Trump went on for nearly 90 minutes in his freewheeling style, jumping from his attempted assassination, to Ukraine, to immigration. As the minutes ticked by, the chart for “tampon” trended down, reaching as low as 7%. But then, just after a discussion of threats to Israel’s Iron Dome missile system, boom:
Donald Trump: Well, her running mate approved, signed into legislation, tampons in boys’ bathrooms. Okay? Now that’s all I have to hear.
Elon Musk: Yeah. Yeah, that’s weird.
Donald Trump: Tampons in boys’ bathrooms.
Elon Musk: That’s weird.
Donald Trump: And that means she believes in that too.
And just like that, the longshot paid off:
“When he said it, the stream and Discord were going absolutely bananas with euphoria on making a 5x on something as ridiculous as Tampons,“ one trader told The Oracle. “Since then, the Tampon Bros have been riding on the pick in Trump markets, with the price of tampons steadily increasing since it has now become a regular Trump tagline that he hits at nearly every event.”
Mention Markets are Fun
Part of The Oracle’s mission is to track how prediction markets give insight into politics, science and other issues of the day. And there are definitely some things that mention markets tell us about candidates and how campaigns are run.
But it would be dishonest to write about mention markets without emphasizing their core feature: they are fun. They are a new way for people to engage with politics, something like a cross between fantasy football and the complex prop bets offered at sports books.
Do mention markets increase engagement with politics? One prediction market trader and Substacker who writes as PROPHET thinks so. But, from several conversations with participants, they seem mostly to attract people who enjoy the added layer of getting into candidates’ heads.
What can we Learn from Mention Markets?
Priorities & Personality. Mention markets can quantify what candidates care about, or want to emphasize. For example, Biden’s legislative centerpiece was the Inflation Reduction Act. Traders gave 75% odds that he would mention the term “inflation” in his speech at the DNC (the bet paid off, but just barely as he said the word only once).
Trump’s speaking style and fixation on topics like immigration have led to a system where he must utter phrases, like “border,” “Comrade Kamala,” or “alien” multiple times for the market to resolve “yes.” In a recent Trump town hall in Wisconsin, Trump said “border” nine times, a heartbreaking miss for traders who had bet on ten or more.
What They Don’t Say. Mention markets also let users predict what a candidate won’t say. One member of the Polymarket Discord advises that it’s safer to bet that Kamala Harris won’t say something, rather than she will.
This is a reflection of Harris’ limited speaking engagements; her recent primetime CNN interview ran only about 30 minutes, and the presence of Walz further cut into her time. This gave her less of a chance to hit any of the 21 phrases on offer, such as “abortion,” “Project 2025,” or “democracy” - all themes that she has emphasized on the campaign trail.
How to Watch the September 10 Debate
On September 10, Harris and Trump will hold their first, and possibly only debate (🔮35% chance of one debate, 55% chance of two) on ABC. The markets for what Trump and Harris will mention at the debate are live, and here’s a preview:
What advice do seasoned mention market predictors have for watching?
Focus on the Context. The “tampon” winner who now hosts X livestreams of campaign events says he focuses on the details of the event, such as format and location, and the news surrounding it when considering what a candidate will say. For example, he describes his successful predictions after Trump’s failed assassination attempt:
“…he was riding a wave of public goodwill, and it being his first opportunity to speak to the American people after the event, I knew that he would focus on coming together versus going strong on the attack lines that he usually does against Biden/Harris, or airing out his grievances. I was able to make nice returns on plays like Unity - Yes, Secret Service - Yes, Ear - Yes, Barron - Yes, Fake News - No, Dementia - No, Hitler - No, Rigged - No.”
Market participants will be paying close attention to the rules for the September 10 debate for clues on how the event will flow.
Review Transcripts and Past Clips. This is especially interesting for markets that hinge on word frequency, for example how many times Trump will say “MAGA” (which must happen 3 times for the market to resolve “yes”). But more subtle patterns may exist. Is Trump more or less likely to use one of his signature nicknames when standing face-to-face with his opponent? Details like this are why event context matters.
Bingo for the Risk Lovers. For the largest events in the campaign season, Polymarket has bingo card markets. These are longshot parlays that pay off when a series of mentions all hit, creating a five-in-a-row on bingo cards released prior to the event. Even with no money on the line, debate bingo adds another layer to the spectacle of live political events: civic engagement through degeneracy.
Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.
They are certainly fun!