Solid work breaking down the directional bias metric here. The 6.3% Democrat tilt at 1 day out is telling, especialy since late money usually chases momentum rather than fundamentals. I've noticed in my own trading that closing prices tend to overshoot on popular narratives, and this seems like a textbook case of that phenomneon playing out across dozens of markets.
3 such cases in 2022 at the 7 day time horizon, specifically Warnock, Fetterman, and Masto. Unsure about the 1 day time horizon (we were only able to source 7 day data through an index of the event page on the wayback machine)
Solid work breaking down the directional bias metric here. The 6.3% Democrat tilt at 1 day out is telling, especialy since late money usually chases momentum rather than fundamentals. I've noticed in my own trading that closing prices tend to overshoot on popular narratives, and this seems like a textbook case of that phenomneon playing out across dozens of markets.
there was an example of predicted GOP victory for Senate in midterms 2022, won by Dem?
3 such cases in 2022 at the 7 day time horizon, specifically Warnock, Fetterman, and Masto. Unsure about the 1 day time horizon (we were only able to source 7 day data through an index of the event page on the wayback machine)
I mean entire Senate control victory? I think GOP favs, DEM victory?