This is the kind of setup where the headline says “pause,” but the system is still trading the same imbalance underneath. The trader’s framing is clean because it focuses on what can actually move, not what’s being announced. Flows, capacity, incentives.
If tankers are hesitant to re-enter, if production can’t restart quickly, and if control over the Strait is even partially discretionary, then you don’t have normalization. You have friction. And friction in a system this tight doesn’t disappear. It compounds.
The tollbooth point is the real fault line. It’s not about the fee itself, it’s about who gets to decide. Once that control shifts, every participant downstream has to adjust behavior around it. That’s where pricing power comes from, and it’s why this isn’t something the market can just fade after a few days of weakness.
The way I’d think about it is simple. Front-month relief can happen because positioning unwinds. But the back of the curve starts telling you what the system actually believes. If that stays bid, it’s not fear. It’s recognition that the constraint hasn’t gone anywhere.
A veteran oil trader at a hedge fund said on Wednesday that a temporary truce between Iran and Israel would not last because Iran was still in control of the Hormuz waterway and Saudi Arabia could never accept that. Whoever controls Hormuz, through which some 20 million barrels of oil are shipped daily, wields more power than any OPEC producer.
Crude oil prices are expected to fall in the immediate future; however, they are expected to be Range-bound and elevated for months. Approximately 12 million barrels per day of production have been impacted by the present crisis and will take a minimum of 6-8 weeks to return to market.
I am following the quantity of traffic transiting through Hormuz and the flow of U.S. military assets closely.
So, this guy has no clue about US forces. The SoH is closed because Trump wants it closed. There will be no transit insurance until Trump is satisfied with the deal. It must be maddening to realize that the US suffers little from the closure, and has no interest in supporting the misaligned interests of foolish Europe and overgrown Asia.
Lol. This is the single dumbest take. Trump was flailing like a fish on a barbecue trying to get them to open the Strait. The oil to China is getting through dimwit. The US can't stop it without risking war with China.
“The two-week ceasefire appears to be more of a tactical timeout rather than a fundamental resolution.” Nope, there is no such thing as “time out” in Trump’s view of the world. He is establishing clear evidence of the culture of death the Iranian leadership subscribes to.
What on earth does this even mean? Trump took a ceasefire because he's strategically losing this war. The Strait is still closed. We can't get the uranium. Oil is still 50%+ off it's pre war lows. And Gulf states have taken a massive beating. This was a catastrophic strategic failure.
If Iran breaks the ceasefire agreement, Trump said all hell will rain down on Iran’s electric utilities, and bridges. He will be bombing them back to another century. How many Iranian people will die without power? The Iranian population’s lives are in the hands of their fascist leaders. The ceasefire agreement was brokered by Pakistan, not Iran. Trump is patiently waiting because he wants Iranian people to prepare for the worst if their leadership continues to sacrifice their safety for the sake of producing nuclear weapons. This is what a culture of death looks like. (Besides that, what kind of barbaric theocratic leaders would hang a 19 year old athlete and his friends for protesting?) The goal is that Trump is insuring that Iran will never have nukes. Understand? https://justthenews.com/government/security/hegseth-says-us-reserves-right-conduct-midnight-hammer-type-attack-over-irans
None of that (any of it) changes the fact that Trump is LOSING this war. He took the ceasefire because he couldn't handle the economic damage (stock and bond market) Irans attacks and strait closure were causing.
The stability of the market is dependent upon the stability of world trade. Your shortsightedness belies your inability to grasp the consequences of an Iranian dirty bomb which is a possibility that Trump is trying to avoid by finishing the war in Iran. Iran must never have the ability to enrich uranium to that point.
Trump took the ceasefire because that is what he did in dealing with Hamas in the Gaza Peace Plan. It is called negotiations. He is watching to see if Iranian leadership will live up to a contract. NATO is committing suicide, but will be replaced by Trump. Here you go Joseph, don’t say I haven’t done anything to help you. https://x.com/alexarmstrong/status/2042059768508879305?s=46
You write that GCC will never accept Iranian toll. But what if oil price stay $5 or $10 above pre-war price ? Even with a $1 per baril toll fee, in the end, it's still a nice profit.
Because would it be possible that the deal between the US and IRGC turn out as an exchange of uranium for control of Hormuz? (+ maybe the lifting of some of the sanctions)
At least for the time being, both could claim victory. Trump would be off the hook. And that would leave Europe and Asia dealing with the matter...
Useful framing on the physical constraints. The infrastructure recovery timeline (6-8 weeks for 70%) is the part most overlooked in the ceasefire discussion, politics aside, the supply chain math alone makes "2 weeks" extremely tight.
I track public figure prediction accuracy for trading signals. Trump has made 12 distinct Iran timeline claims since the war started, from "4-5 weeks" (Mar 2) to "48hr ultimatum" (Mar 21) to "2-3 weeks" (Mar 31) to "COMPLETE and IMMEDIATE" (Apr 8). 0 of 12 have materialized as stated. Not a political point, just a pattern that matters if you're sizing positions on Hormuz or ceasefire markets.
Tomorrow's Islamabad talks are the next data point worth watching.
At what price per-barrel does Venezuelan oil become profitable enough for the big companies to overcome their hesitancy to invest? How long will it take them to get up and running?
Definitely fragile ground as with anything to do with the Middle East.
This is the kind of setup where the headline says “pause,” but the system is still trading the same imbalance underneath. The trader’s framing is clean because it focuses on what can actually move, not what’s being announced. Flows, capacity, incentives.
If tankers are hesitant to re-enter, if production can’t restart quickly, and if control over the Strait is even partially discretionary, then you don’t have normalization. You have friction. And friction in a system this tight doesn’t disappear. It compounds.
The tollbooth point is the real fault line. It’s not about the fee itself, it’s about who gets to decide. Once that control shifts, every participant downstream has to adjust behavior around it. That’s where pricing power comes from, and it’s why this isn’t something the market can just fade after a few days of weakness.
The way I’d think about it is simple. Front-month relief can happen because positioning unwinds. But the back of the curve starts telling you what the system actually believes. If that stays bid, it’s not fear. It’s recognition that the constraint hasn’t gone anywhere.
Trump is an absolute genius that is changing the history of the world and beyond.
The screen door has hit Rutte in the arse, and he doesn’t even know it. Europe is a true paper tiger.
A veteran oil trader at a hedge fund said on Wednesday that a temporary truce between Iran and Israel would not last because Iran was still in control of the Hormuz waterway and Saudi Arabia could never accept that. Whoever controls Hormuz, through which some 20 million barrels of oil are shipped daily, wields more power than any OPEC producer.
Crude oil prices are expected to fall in the immediate future; however, they are expected to be Range-bound and elevated for months. Approximately 12 million barrels per day of production have been impacted by the present crisis and will take a minimum of 6-8 weeks to return to market.
I am following the quantity of traffic transiting through Hormuz and the flow of U.S. military assets closely.
So, this guy has no clue about US forces. The SoH is closed because Trump wants it closed. There will be no transit insurance until Trump is satisfied with the deal. It must be maddening to realize that the US suffers little from the closure, and has no interest in supporting the misaligned interests of foolish Europe and overgrown Asia.
Lol. This is the single dumbest take. Trump was flailing like a fish on a barbecue trying to get them to open the Strait. The oil to China is getting through dimwit. The US can't stop it without risking war with China.
Maddening.
Scott you re wrong with your false narrative , let be respected the truth, radical truth
Surely American capitalist running pig dogs will reach miserable end. All praise Dear Leader.
“The two-week ceasefire appears to be more of a tactical timeout rather than a fundamental resolution.” Nope, there is no such thing as “time out” in Trump’s view of the world. He is establishing clear evidence of the culture of death the Iranian leadership subscribes to.
What on earth does this even mean? Trump took a ceasefire because he's strategically losing this war. The Strait is still closed. We can't get the uranium. Oil is still 50%+ off it's pre war lows. And Gulf states have taken a massive beating. This was a catastrophic strategic failure.
If Iran breaks the ceasefire agreement, Trump said all hell will rain down on Iran’s electric utilities, and bridges. He will be bombing them back to another century. How many Iranian people will die without power? The Iranian population’s lives are in the hands of their fascist leaders. The ceasefire agreement was brokered by Pakistan, not Iran. Trump is patiently waiting because he wants Iranian people to prepare for the worst if their leadership continues to sacrifice their safety for the sake of producing nuclear weapons. This is what a culture of death looks like. (Besides that, what kind of barbaric theocratic leaders would hang a 19 year old athlete and his friends for protesting?) The goal is that Trump is insuring that Iran will never have nukes. Understand? https://justthenews.com/government/security/hegseth-says-us-reserves-right-conduct-midnight-hammer-type-attack-over-irans
None of that (any of it) changes the fact that Trump is LOSING this war. He took the ceasefire because he couldn't handle the economic damage (stock and bond market) Irans attacks and strait closure were causing.
The stability of the market is dependent upon the stability of world trade. Your shortsightedness belies your inability to grasp the consequences of an Iranian dirty bomb which is a possibility that Trump is trying to avoid by finishing the war in Iran. Iran must never have the ability to enrich uranium to that point.
Cool. So the Strait of Hormuz was FULLY OPEN before President Dumbass got tricked into starting the war by Netanyahu.
There is no evidence whatsoever that Iran was close to a bomb oraling a dirty bomb.
Here is why Europe needs to wake up. Trump is doing what he can to block Russian influence. Securing trade routes is about establishing peace. https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/when-the-worlds-arteries-close-from-suezs-8-year-shutdown-to-the-shadow-blockade-of-hormuz-1.500491097
Trump took the ceasefire because that is what he did in dealing with Hamas in the Gaza Peace Plan. It is called negotiations. He is watching to see if Iranian leadership will live up to a contract. NATO is committing suicide, but will be replaced by Trump. Here you go Joseph, don’t say I haven’t done anything to help you. https://x.com/alexarmstrong/status/2042059768508879305?s=46
You write that GCC will never accept Iranian toll. But what if oil price stay $5 or $10 above pre-war price ? Even with a $1 per baril toll fee, in the end, it's still a nice profit.
Because would it be possible that the deal between the US and IRGC turn out as an exchange of uranium for control of Hormuz? (+ maybe the lifting of some of the sanctions)
At least for the time being, both could claim victory. Trump would be off the hook. And that would leave Europe and Asia dealing with the matter...
Useful framing on the physical constraints. The infrastructure recovery timeline (6-8 weeks for 70%) is the part most overlooked in the ceasefire discussion, politics aside, the supply chain math alone makes "2 weeks" extremely tight.
I track public figure prediction accuracy for trading signals. Trump has made 12 distinct Iran timeline claims since the war started, from "4-5 weeks" (Mar 2) to "48hr ultimatum" (Mar 21) to "2-3 weeks" (Mar 31) to "COMPLETE and IMMEDIATE" (Apr 8). 0 of 12 have materialized as stated. Not a political point, just a pattern that matters if you're sizing positions on Hormuz or ceasefire markets.
Tomorrow's Islamabad talks are the next data point worth watching.
Great stuff gents
Thanks a lot !
"Any new energy questions we should have on Polymarket?"
This question is really an excellent idea, having feedback on which questions truly matters is really interesting
At what price per-barrel does Venezuelan oil become profitable enough for the big companies to overcome their hesitancy to invest? How long will it take them to get up and running?