This is the kind of setup where the headline says “pause,” but the system is still trading the same imbalance underneath. The trader’s framing is clean because it focuses on what can actually move, not what’s being announced. Flows, capacity, incentives.
If tankers are hesitant to re-enter, if production can’t restart quickly, and if control over the Strait is even partially discretionary, then you don’t have normalization. You have friction. And friction in a system this tight doesn’t disappear. It compounds.
The tollbooth point is the real fault line. It’s not about the fee itself, it’s about who gets to decide. Once that control shifts, every participant downstream has to adjust behavior around it. That’s where pricing power comes from, and it’s why this isn’t something the market can just fade after a few days of weakness.
The way I’d think about it is simple. Front-month relief can happen because positioning unwinds. But the back of the curve starts telling you what the system actually believes. If that stays bid, it’s not fear. It’s recognition that the constraint hasn’t gone anywhere.
So, this guy has no clue about US forces. The SoH is closed because Trump wants it closed. There will be no transit insurance until Trump is satisfied with the deal. It must be maddening to realize that the US suffers little from the closure, and has no interest in supporting the misaligned interests of foolish Europe and overgrown Asia.
Lol. This is the single dumbest take. Trump was flailing like a fish on a barbecue trying to get them to open the Strait. The oil to China is getting through dimwit. The US can't stop it without risking war with China.
“The two-week ceasefire appears to be more of a tactical timeout rather than a fundamental resolution.” Nope, there is no such thing as “time out” in Trump’s view of the world. He is establishing clear evidence of the culture of death the Iranian leadership subscribes to.
What on earth does this even mean? Trump took a ceasefire because he's strategically losing this war. The Strait is still closed. We can't get the uranium. Oil is still 50%+ off it's pre war lows. And Gulf states have taken a massive beating. This was a catastrophic strategic failure.
At what price per-barrel does Venezuelan oil become profitable enough for the big companies to overcome their hesitancy to invest? How long will it take them to get up and running?
This is the kind of setup where the headline says “pause,” but the system is still trading the same imbalance underneath. The trader’s framing is clean because it focuses on what can actually move, not what’s being announced. Flows, capacity, incentives.
If tankers are hesitant to re-enter, if production can’t restart quickly, and if control over the Strait is even partially discretionary, then you don’t have normalization. You have friction. And friction in a system this tight doesn’t disappear. It compounds.
The tollbooth point is the real fault line. It’s not about the fee itself, it’s about who gets to decide. Once that control shifts, every participant downstream has to adjust behavior around it. That’s where pricing power comes from, and it’s why this isn’t something the market can just fade after a few days of weakness.
The way I’d think about it is simple. Front-month relief can happen because positioning unwinds. But the back of the curve starts telling you what the system actually believes. If that stays bid, it’s not fear. It’s recognition that the constraint hasn’t gone anywhere.
Trump is an absolute genius that is changing the history of the world and beyond.
So, this guy has no clue about US forces. The SoH is closed because Trump wants it closed. There will be no transit insurance until Trump is satisfied with the deal. It must be maddening to realize that the US suffers little from the closure, and has no interest in supporting the misaligned interests of foolish Europe and overgrown Asia.
Lol. This is the single dumbest take. Trump was flailing like a fish on a barbecue trying to get them to open the Strait. The oil to China is getting through dimwit. The US can't stop it without risking war with China.
Maddening.
“The two-week ceasefire appears to be more of a tactical timeout rather than a fundamental resolution.” Nope, there is no such thing as “time out” in Trump’s view of the world. He is establishing clear evidence of the culture of death the Iranian leadership subscribes to.
What on earth does this even mean? Trump took a ceasefire because he's strategically losing this war. The Strait is still closed. We can't get the uranium. Oil is still 50%+ off it's pre war lows. And Gulf states have taken a massive beating. This was a catastrophic strategic failure.
Definitely fragile ground as with anything to do with the Middle East.
At what price per-barrel does Venezuelan oil become profitable enough for the big companies to overcome their hesitancy to invest? How long will it take them to get up and running?