🔮 Our Man in Lisbon
EXCLUSIVE: Polymarket whale reveals $300k Portugal election positions after going boots-on-the-ground
Scottilicious is a political science PhD dropout and Polymarket whale with over $1.3 million in lifetime profits.
In our last piece, he explained his strategy for hiring Korean informants on Fiverr to understand the country’s politics.
Now he’s going even further with an on-the-ground research trip to Portugal that he hopes will be funded by over $300k in bets he’s placing on Sunday’s presidential election.
The Oracle caught up with him for a debrief on his research trip and election trades.
This interview has been edited for length. All answers are his own.
You flew to Portugal to research the election. That’s a first for you. What prompted it?
Midlife crisis. Need for change.
I went to Portugal about two years ago and really liked it. The people were super friendly, and they have a really high percentage of English speakers. And I figured if I needed to hire a translator, wages are low enough that it wouldn’t break the bank.
When I posted on X that I was considering this, I got responses immediately from Portuguese people offering to help. One was a political science major who ended up being an incredible source for background. You really need this architecture for interpreting results you get from interviews. Otherwise you’re just showing up and interviewing random people.
I know zero about Portugal’s elections and politics. Give us the lay of the land.
Portugal had a right-wing dictatorship from the 1930s to mid-1970s. So the older folks are really averse to anyone with authoritarian tendencies.
The current election is for president, which is more of a ceremonial role than prime minister. They act as a referee, a crisis manager, versus a policymaker. It’s only the second time in 20 years this race is going to a second round, which has piqued everyone’s interest.
The main candidates are:
Seguro: Center-left socialist
Cotrim: Young liberal reformer who’s strong on social media. Like the Andrew Yang of Portugal.
Mendes: Old school center-right
Ventura: Far-right populist, sort of a mix of Trump with Marine Le Pen
So you just walk into cafes and start asking people who they’re voting for?
We wanted to produce a video on the trip so I had my cousin come with me to do video editing. We had a few formal interviews that were set up by the folks I connected with on X.
But on the second or third day, we were stressing about not having enough material. Michael, my cousin, was like, “Go have some coffee. I’m just going to start interviewing people.” A majority of what we captured is him going up to random people asking if they’ll talk on camera for a few minutes.
We also interviewed Uber drivers. We asked three who they were voting for, and two were pro-Ventura. That’s because a lot of immigrants are driving Uber in Lisbon and lowering prices, so the established drivers are pissed.
Interview Footage
Ok let’s go to your positions. You have almost $200k on “No” for Ventura winning. That’s your biggest position. Why so confident?
The consensus that Ventura can’t win a second round is overwhelming. Even his own supporters agree. We had maybe two exceptions out of everyone we interviewed.
Portugal is where France was 10 years ago with Marine Le Pen. She was gaining popularity, but a huge segment of the population would block her in the second round. It’s a similar dynamic here. They’re not at the point yet, like Italy or Hungary, where they could actually put a far-right person in power.
There’s also a hidden factor I gleaned from personal research that’s hard to discern from polls: many Ventura supporters want him to be Prime Minister, which is a more powerful position. So they may not vote for him for president. His own people might sit this one out.
But Ventura is heavily favored to go to the second round. And you have almost $200k on “No” for President. Doesn’t that make you nervous?
I’d put it at 50 to 55% that he makes the second round. The market seems high based on my conversations. He was leading at one point, polling at 23-24%, but now he’s below Cotrim.
One really bright guy on the PolyAlpha discord showed that my assertion from on-the-ground research about negatives against Ventura is borne out in polling too. He has really high negatives.
What’s your game plan if Ventura does make the second round?
If there’s meat on the bone, I’d bet more “No” on him. If he makes it and the “No” only goes to 85 or 90%, that’s a solid buy. But if it goes straight to 99, what’s the point? I’m near my limit already.
My risk manager is on my ass about too much Ventura exposure.
Mendes was a heavy favorite but seemed to crash in early January. What happened there?
He had a very poor debate performance and some corruption accusations came out. He was directly attacked in the debate and just bumbled. Didn’t really know what to say.
But what I found on the ground is that the weakness was already there. Three-quarters of the Mendes supporters we talked to were equivocal. One guy said, “Yeah, I was for Mendes, but I’m looking at other possibilities.” You didn’t see that with the Seguro people. You didn’t see that with the Cotrim people. You certainly didn’t see it with the Ventura people.
That’s alpha. That enthusiasm gap isn’t something polls necessarily capture. I built a decent “No” position on Mendes because of it. Started buying in the 60s, and now it’s in the 80s.
Some older folks even made fun of his height. “Oh, Mendes, you know, shorty.” That doesn’t indicate conviction. That indicates the guy’s not being taken seriously.
Who has the real momentum?
Cotrim. The market has him at 25% to make the second round. I’d put him at 45 to 50%.
I actually met him at a rally. The level of access was incredible.
He’s got influencers and actors at his rallies. He’s the Andrew Yang of Portugal. Less radical than Milei, more policy-focused than shock value. When he was head of Portugal’s tourism industry, he put a billboard of Portugal’s best wave in Times Square to attract New Yorkers. That entrepreneurial mindset appeals to young people who are tired of the bureaucracy and cost of living.
Any other positions we should know about?
I have $50k “No” on Melo, an independent guy who had initial appeal as anti-establishment but didn’t grasp the issues in debates. The “No” at 90% all the way to 93% is a solid buy. I’m buying more today.
I also have about $6k “Yes” on Seguro, but I’m not sizing up because the momentum isn’t with him. If I had both the quantitative data and the momentum pointing to Seguro, I would’ve sized a lot more. But I’m not going to do it when someone else has the energy.
How did having local sources change your information advantage?
Speed. Cotrim was accused of sexual harassment yesterday. I got that info within 10 minutes from one of my guys. Before it hit the international press.
One source told me, with 70% confidence, there’s a Catholic poll about to come out showing Ventura in the lead. That’s the kind of intelligence you get from being plugged in locally.
I noticed you also have $200k on “No” for Trump’s Greenland acquisition. Does that connect to Portugal at all?
Actually, yes. It’s portfolio construction. Knowing myself, sometimes I’ll prevent going too heavy into something by buying up something else. I may have bought so much Greenland so I could make sure I didn’t go too crazy on Portugal.
My risk manager is already giving me grief about the Ventura position. The Greenland bet is a hedge against my own worst instincts.
Final advice for traders considering boots-on-the-ground research?
Come join me. Let’s do this.
Seriously, if someone said, “Here’s your budget, go to northern Portugal and interview people,” I’d do it in a heartbeat. The Portuguese are the most welcoming people. They just want to talk and tell you about their country.
The hard part is knowing when to stop. My risk manager exists for a reason.
Follow Scottilicious on X @scottonPoly.
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