I don't think doomberg predicted any of that as happening....he liked the long shot odds om those...likelihood of it happening very slim. However atleast 1 eu gov falling apart before end of 2026 is likely happening.
"I assumed that no one had ever won a first round by that much and then failed to clinch the second round. I was very wrong." I mean I think you were right as of May 17 2025 (with a decent sample size if you include subnational results)!!
I don't think doomberg predicted any of that as happening....he liked the long shot odds om those...likelihood of it happening very slim. However atleast 1 eu gov falling apart before end of 2026 is likely happening.
"I assumed that no one had ever won a first round by that much and then failed to clinch the second round. I was very wrong." I mean I think you were right as of May 17 2025 (with a decent sample size if you include subnational results)!!