Investor who paid homeless people to surveil government offices reveals how to get sources to tell you anything. PLUS: Why Warner Brothers will go to Paramount
PSKY secured US antitrust approval of its WBD bid. They wanted to get this key clearance first before bumping their formal $30 (and informal $31) bid. Now by Monday is the time for a few more bucks to secure a new deal, putting the ball back to NFLX's court for a bump. But this regulatory approval is a big move in PSKY's direction.
Here's the state of play: PSKY formally offered $30, informally offered $31, and WBD expects that they will offer $32. This probably ends in a PSKY-WBD deal or a NFLX bump. The bid-ask for PSKY-WBD is surmountable. PSKY has been flexible on non-price issues. They're close to their top on price but could end up $33-34. When interviewed, the market implied probability was 2:1 that NFLX would be the buyer. My view was that the true odds were the opposite -- 2:1 that PSKY would be the buyer. Today it is 1:1, but it will be a busy, perhaps decisive, week...
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Denouement: Paramount closed its Warner Bros. deal. Bets paid out. Fun win.
Warner Board Determines Paramount Offer Could Lead to Superior Proposal https://ir.wbd.com/news-and-events/financial-news/financial-news-details/2026/Warner-Bros--Discovery-Board-of-Directors-Determines-Revised-Proposal-from-Paramount-Skydance-Could-Reasonably-Be-Expected-to-Lead-to-a-Company-Superior-Proposal/default.aspx
PSKY secured US antitrust approval of its WBD bid. They wanted to get this key clearance first before bumping their formal $30 (and informal $31) bid. Now by Monday is the time for a few more bucks to secure a new deal, putting the ball back to NFLX's court for a bump. But this regulatory approval is a big move in PSKY's direction.
My short story on taylor swift predictions https://nimnim1.substack.com/p/poly-hell
Netflix Declines to Raise Offer for Warner Bros. https://ir.netflix.net/investor-news-and-events/financial-releases/press-release-details/2026/Netflix-Declines-to-Raise-Offer-for-Warner-Bros-/default.aspx
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
Warner Bros. deal odds shift to Paramount as $14M options bet signals Netflix upside if it loses https://seekingalpha.com/news/4557458-warner-bros-deal-odds-shift-to-paramount-as-14m-options-bet-signals-netflix-upside-if-it-loses
Here's the state of play: PSKY formally offered $30, informally offered $31, and WBD expects that they will offer $32. This probably ends in a PSKY-WBD deal or a NFLX bump. The bid-ask for PSKY-WBD is surmountable. PSKY has been flexible on non-price issues. They're close to their top on price but could end up $33-34. When interviewed, the market implied probability was 2:1 that NFLX would be the buyer. My view was that the true odds were the opposite -- 2:1 that PSKY would be the buyer. Today it is 1:1, but it will be a busy, perhaps decisive, week...