Confucius say: the flock you can count beats the swan you can't. Polymarket's 17% for a NATO-Russia clash is really 21 incidents since 1950, and most clustered in the early Cold War before satellites retired the risky overflight missions. Strip those gray swans out and the post-1965 rate drops to single digits. The accumulation already happened. It's just priced like it hasn't.
is your analysis objective? you implicitly assume Russia wants to drive a wedge, hence … Of course, and so what? Isn’t it more relevant that Europe keeps on poking, via the Baltics now? Population does not want the war, yet leaders keep on saying Europeans should be prepared. NATO provides weapons, and emboldens Ukraine. An entire generation of young Ukrainians has already been decimated. NATO is helping Ukrainians to get massacred. If i have to go by what you write, Europeans are Holier than Others. I don’t mind, propaganda, censorship, etc. are everywhere. But this is different: how does this bias affect your post? Anyway, polymarket or not, some confrontation unfortunately will be there. And, in case, it won’t be war of attrition, Putin let understand it clearly
Confucius say: Everyone watches for the black swan. The smarter trade is often watching the flock of gray swans accumulating
Confucius say: the flock you can count beats the swan you can't. Polymarket's 17% for a NATO-Russia clash is really 21 incidents since 1950, and most clustered in the early Cold War before satellites retired the risky overflight missions. Strip those gray swans out and the post-1965 rate drops to single digits. The accumulation already happened. It's just priced like it hasn't.
is your analysis objective? you implicitly assume Russia wants to drive a wedge, hence … Of course, and so what? Isn’t it more relevant that Europe keeps on poking, via the Baltics now? Population does not want the war, yet leaders keep on saying Europeans should be prepared. NATO provides weapons, and emboldens Ukraine. An entire generation of young Ukrainians has already been decimated. NATO is helping Ukrainians to get massacred. If i have to go by what you write, Europeans are Holier than Others. I don’t mind, propaganda, censorship, etc. are everywhere. But this is different: how does this bias affect your post? Anyway, polymarket or not, some confrontation unfortunately will be there. And, in case, it won’t be war of attrition, Putin let understand it clearly