🔮 Eggs and Lithium
Here’s what we’re hoarding this week.
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Shock MVP. Philly’s blowout win was a surprise to many who expected a more competitive game. No streaker. The Taylor Swift parlay failed to hit, and the market quickly sniffed out green Gatorade as the Eagles dominated from the first quarter. But the biggest surprise of the night was Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts as MVP, a 20% underdog heading into the game.
Shutdown. Odds are over 70% and climbing for another federal government funding lapse when the current budget authorization expires on March 14. Some Democrats see a shutdown as their only point of leverage against Trump’s attempts to delete USAID and aggressive moves with DOGE. But would a shutdown be a feature or a bug for Trump, who is already looking for ways to cause attrition in the federal workforce?
MBS. During his first term, Trump clicked with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, via the Kushner-MBS bromance. But Trump’s surprise announcement that the US would take over Gaza following the war provoked a strongly-worded statement from Riyadh. After Trump met with Netanyahu last week, odds are soaring for Trump to meet with MBS (🔮84%) during his first 100 days, making him now the most likely foreign head of state to meet with Trump in the near term.
Putin. Over the weekend it was reported that Trump and Putin had a call to discuss the Ukraine war, which the Kremlin has neither confirmed nor denied. Odds that Trump and Putin meet in the first 100 days spiked to 56% on the news. But it’s still more likely that Trump meets with Zelensky in the first hundred (🔮77% odds).
Rare Earth. Trump has revealed his “ask” of Zelensky, which seems to be in part a concession related to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, and other in-demand resources such as titanium and lithium.
The market is pricing a 62% chance that a rare earth deal is announced before April 1. Ukraine has one of Europe’s largest supplies of rare earth minerals. Interestingly, most of these are located in the eastern provinces that have been seized by Russia.
Eggs. The price of eggs has become the symbol of sticky inflation. The cost for a dozen eggs has shot up above $4 and is almost certain to increase as bird flu forces egg producers to kill infected flocks. Fortunately, Polymarket’s egg price markets offer a way to hedge your breakfast exposure:
Chance price of eggs goes up in Trump’s first month: 🔮 90%
Dozen eggs hits $5 by April: 🔮 91%
Eggs over $5 in January: 🔮 29%
Eggs over $6 in February: 🔮21%
Trump Legislation. The market has been bearish on any Trump promises that require getting a bill passed through the small Republican majorities in Congress. The big exception to this is some kind of border security deal. Currently there’s a 75% chance that Trump passes a border bill that includes any of the following:
Increased funding for a border wall with Mexico
Increased immigration services fees
Taxes on remittances
Increased funding for Immigration law enforcement, U.S. Customs and Border Patrol
Restrictions on undocumented immigrants from using government services
Upset in Ecuador? Ecuador’s presidential election will be going to an April 13 runoff after the leftist candidate Luisa González got 44.1% of the vote against incumbent Daniel Noboa’s 44.5%. The unexpectedly close first round seems to have revealed this as a truly competitive race.
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One nitpick: neither titanium nor lithium are rare earth minerals (or elements or metals)