🏈The Big Game
🔮Welcome back to The Oracle. We are pleased to bring you a (fully compliant) bonus issue from Dylan Orrell breaking down this weekend’s Big Game.
The football season has reached its climax, and once again, Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City is facing a familiar foe in a rematch of the 2023 Big Game.
Here’s everything you need to know before kickoff, plus a few ways to make Sunday night even more entertaining – courtesy of Polymarket Sports.
The Matchup
This year’s Big Game features two teams that dominated the regular season but did so in different fashions on their paths to New Orleans.
Kansas City (🔮53% to win), fresh off a 15-2 season, are attempting to become the first team in history to three-peat—an unprecedented feat, as no back-to-back champion has ever made a third straight run at the Lombardi.
Philadelphia (🔮47% to win), meanwhile, finished 14-3 and enter the big game with momentum after a record-setting conference blowout, scoring 55 points—the most ever in a conference title game in recent memory.
There are countless ways to break down this matchup (position by position, scheme vs. scheme, etc), but a few key battles could ultimately decide the outcome. Here’s what to watch for on Sunday evening.
Elite Running Game vs. a Stifling Run Defense
Philly boasts the league’s best rushing attack, anchored by an elite offensive line and Saquon Barkley, who has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in 14 of 19 games this season—including five straight. Saquon had a historic regular season – becoming just the 9th player in league history to rush for over 2,000 yards. Barkley is second in the league in explosive runs of 20+ yards, making him a constant big-play threat.
However, the Kansas City defense presents a serious challenge. KC has been a top-5 run defense all season and hasn’t allowed a single running back to hit the 100-yard mark—not in the regular season, nor in their last 18 playoff games. Notably, two of Philly’s three losses this season came when Barkley failed to reach 100 yards, highlighting just how crucial their ground game is to success.
Clutch Factor: KC’s Ability to Win Close Games
Kansas City has thrived in tight contests, winning a league-record 17 consecutive one-score games, including 12 this season. Credit to Patrick Mahomes and his ability to finish out these close games time after time after time – that poise under pressure has been a hallmark of their success and could be a decisive factor in a game expected to be highly competitive.
Red Zone Execution: The Make-or-Break Factor
Both teams have been strong offensively, but their success inside the 20-yard line could be the deciding factor. The Philadelphia offense ranks top 5 in opponent red-zone efficiency, routinely turning trips inside the 20 into touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Kansas City has been merely middle-of-the-pack in red-zone offense, which could be a concern against a Philly defense that ranks among the league’s best in both advanced defensive rushing and passing metrics. If KC finds themselves struggling in goal-to-go situations and routinely settling for field goals instead of touchdowns, don’t be surprised.
The Pressure Game: Philly’s O-Line vs. KC’s Blitz-Heavy Defense
Jalen Hurts has been one of the most well-protected quarterbacks in the league, thanks to an offensive line that has consistently given him time to throw. Per PFF, he boasts the second-highest average time to throw among all quarterbacks – meaning the amount of time his offensive line affords him to make a decision before facing pressure.
However, his performance drops significantly when pressured, and Kansas City will test that. Under pressure, Hurts ranks dead last or nearly dead last among qualified pass throwers in success rate, sack rate and yards per attempt. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league (over 31% of dropbacks), creating a fascinating chess match between Philly’s pass protection and Kansas City’s aggressive defensive schemes.
Coaching Chess Match: Vic Fangio vs. Steve Spagnuolo
The defensive philosophies in this game couldn’t be more different. Philly’s defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is known for a disciplined, bend-don’t-break approach that rarely relies on blitzing and focuses on preventing explosive plays and has allowed a league-low 84 explosive plays over the course of the regular season (plays from scrimmage, 10+ rushing or 20+ passing).
While there is a popular narrative around Mahomes being a perfect 8-0 against Fangio-led defenses, that isn’t the full story of the statistic – Mahomes has played about average in those matchups.
On the other side, KC’s defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo thrives on exotic blitz packages and aggressive play-calling – but he will need to limit an explosive Philly offense that has racked up the fourth most explosive plays from scrimmage this year (49 through the air, 25 on the ground). This contrast will be crucial—if Kansas City can rattle Hurts with their pressure while containing Philadelphia’s run game, the game script could significantly tilt in favor of KC.
The Markets
If you’re planning on taking in the action on Sunday, the crew at Polymarket Sports have curated a ridiculous selection of interesting prop markets for your viewing pleasure. Ranging from your standard fare to more exotic, let’s dive into some markets to make this game a bit more interesting if you aren’t a part of either fanbase.
Gatorade Shower Color
A personal favorite, providing a sweat down to the waning moments of the broadcast. Kansas City have opted for purple the past 2 seasons in a row, while Philly went with Yellow back in 2018. It’s worth noting that Philly also selected yellow during both recent NFCCG victories (this year and two years ago).
Coin Toss
Bookend the evening with a (literal) coin flip market. No edge here, pure vibes.
National Anthem Length
A slightly more nuanced market, the national anthem is always a polarizing subject amongst enthusiasts due to many controversies around when the performance officially begins and ends. Don’t worry, the Polymarket Sports team has spent some time to clearly define the rules of this market so you know exactly how to gameplan.
The over has hit 4 times in a row, though had only hit twice in the past 10 years. Sometimes we have previous performer renditions to baseline off of – so we went deep into the internet archives to find a performance from all the way back in 2007 from the legendary Jon Batiste. The result – a speedy ~91 second performance at the Basketball All-Star game. On Super Sunday,the anthem hasn’t been 90 seconds or less since 2007 when Billy Joel clocked in at exactly that length.
Connect With The Oracle
Tips? Feedback? Story ideas? Write oracle@polymarket.com or @wasabiboat on X
NEW: We’re On X: Follow The Oracle for updates
Write for The Oracle: We’re expanding our coverage and looking to hire more writers and investigators. Details Here.
Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.