🇺🇸 Did Rogan Seal the Deal? 🇺🇸

PLUS: What markets we’re watching tonight

Nov 05, 2024

On election day, Donald Trump’s odds in the Polymarket general election market stand at 60.3%, up four points overnight.

Rogan

At 8:45pm EST, Joe Rogan formally endorsed Trump following an interview with Elon Musk. A Google Trends screenshot shared on X suggested the highest search traffic in Pennsylvania. But we don’t see a telltale spike in the state that corresponds to the endorsement.

Selzer Bounce?

The Harris bounce on the back of the shocking Ann Selzer poll in Iowa has mostly retraced in PA, but the effects are still being seen in the Michigan and Wisconsin swing state odds. Trump continues to show strength in the Sunbelt.

How Does Polymarket Compare?

Nate Silver ran his final model update of the election and came out with a dead tie. Market based prediction models continue to show a ~10% edge for Trump compared with other election models.

Maxim Lott of electionbettingodds.com, an aggregator of betting odds that includes Polymarket, shared a chart showing the biggest state differentials between Silver’s model and market-based odds.

When Will This End?

Several markets on Polymarket give us a sense of when we can expect the AP to call a winner:

31% chance AP calls the election by 3am on November 6
80% chance Trump declares victory before AP calls the election
95% chance election called by Thanksgiving

Key Senate Races to Watch

Republican Control - 82% odds
Ohio: 61% odds for Moreno (R)
Pennsylvania: 76% odds for Casey (D)
Montana: 83% odds for Sheehy (R)
Wisconsin: 74% odds for Baldwin (D)
Nevada: 85% odds for Rosen (D)

How to Follow the Election on Polymarket

Apple Devices: Download Polymarket’s free Election Forecast app.
Web: Visit https://polymarket.com/elections
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