🔮 5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internet

How one poll is shaking up the race

At 7pm EST Saturday, J Ann Selzer, the top rated pollster in Nate Silver’s database, released a poll showing Kamala Harris leading Trump by three points in Iowa. 

Before the poll dropped, Twitter speculation centered on just how big Trump’s lead would be, and the shocking result showing Harris ahead is forcing markets to rethink their priors. Here are five things you need to know about how the poll is shaking the race. 

One: How Markets Moved

The shock result triggered repricing across several election markets. In Iowa, Trump went from a 95% favorite to 83% now. 

In Wisconsin, the swing state most demographically similar to Iowa, Harris jumped to a 59% lead. She also briefly took the lead in Pennsylvania, before reverting to a 56% Trump lead. 

In the national matchup, Trump’s lead in the odds fell as low as 53%, before bouncing back to 56%.

Two: Dems Salivating, Republicans in Shock 

Even though the poll did not flip the odds in Iowa, it has massive implications for the national environment. If a Democrat can be up 3 in a deep red state, could a Harris blowout scenario be back on the table?   

Odds of a Democratic blowout spiked as much as 3x after the poll’s release

Republicans have begun to attack Selzer, insinuating that Illinois governor JB Pritzker, who is rumored to have leaked the result early, was somehow involved in adjusting the poll.

Laura Loomer posted a single image of a black swan, followed later by a cryptic prediction: “It’s coming.” 

Three: Movement with Women, Independents, Late-Deciders  

The Selzer poll, based on 808 Iowa likely voters and conducted from October 28-31, showed some interesting trends:

• RFK Jr, who remains on the ballot in the state, is getting 3% of the vote, down from 9% in June

• Despite RFK joining team-Trump, Independent voters have broken hard for Harris, where she is now leading by a 28-point margin

• Women over 65 support harris 63% to 28%

• 91% of voters have now made up their minds

• Overall, Harris holds a 20-point lead with women, 56% to 36%, similar to where she was in September 

Four: Questions on Polling Methodology and Herding 

The poll highlights a number of outstanding questions on the state of polling this cycle.

Atlas Intel, an A-rated pollster that had good results last cycle, released a set of polls the same day showing solid Trump leads in the battleground states. NYT-Sienna also released a head-scratching final poll showing Trump ahead four points on Arizona, but losing North Carolina by three. 

It is unclear why the markets are putting an outsized weight on a single 800-voter sample from Iowa when the other polling averages continue to show a very tight race. 

What does the market know? 

Five: Polymarket is now a Left-Wing Psyop

On Twitter, the accusations about Polymarket have switched polarity. Instead of being a right wing voodoo operation, we are now a left wing psyop. Please update your records accordingly. 

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