🔮 Blue Wall in Focus

As Trump’s odds fall below 60%

The race has continued to tighten over the last 24 hours, with Donald Trump’s lead in the odds now standing at 58.7% to 41.3%. Since our last update, Kamala Harris has retaken a slight lead in Wisconsin (🔮51% - 29% Harris), and continues to improve in Pennsylvania (🔮56% - 44% Trump).

These developments shine a spotlight on the Blue Wall path, where Harris must win the trifecta of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to make up for losses in the Sun Belt. 

Early vote totals in Nevada have continued to favor Trump, a “rural landslide” per Jon Ralston, that puts Dems in the position of needing to win overwhelmingly in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, to overcome a Republican advantage of 49,000 votes.

The odds that Harris wins with exactly 270, her narrowest possible Electoral College victory, winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin while losing all the other swing states, stand at 10%. 

The gap between Polymarket and other model- or market-based forecasting methods has narrowed in recent days. Our friends at The Super Model have compiled a live-updating table that tracks how the methods stack up and provides a helpful average.

Undecideds Breaking or Campaign Psyops?

With two days and 15 hours to go to election day, the race has tightened considerably. Harris campaign manager David Plouffe has been spreading the word that Trump’s Madison Square Garden event tipped the balance for many undecided voters. Politico:

But Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita was quick to push back, via Mark Halperin. 

There may be time to get one or two more high quality polls to assess how public opinion is reacting in the final days. But for now, the markets are shining a spotlight on the Blue Wall.

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