How can Netanyahu be replaced by EOY 2025? The Knesset is on recess until mid-October. Once the Knesset dissolves it's 90 days to have an election. You can't even have an election by EOY 2025. A new government is typically sworn in almost two months after the election. A week or so after the election the President acts someone to form a government, and then you get six weeks to form a government.
"Israel is in a very precarious situation right now after they failed to quickly decapitate Iran." Really? Elaborate. To me it looks like they won.
I guess if you are in "short the West, short Europe" mode then you might also short Israel by mistake. I'm not super enamored with Netanyahu and I'm definitely not a fan of his coalition partners Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, but Doomberg clearly just does not understand the Israeli political system. There isn't enough time to replace Netanyahu. Also Netanyahu has been losing EVERY poll since October 7, even after Israel crushed Hezbollah and so on. He was losing before October 7 too because of the judicial reform.
As always Doomberg is interesting. The collapse of Ukraine would shake the world. If it’s a political revolution that reaches a deal with Russia that would definitely encourage China to up the pressure on Taiwan and in the South China Sea. It’s more about Western weakness than BRICS strength because the BRICS are not a thing in the sense of a one for all, all for one alliance. To her credit Pippa Malmgren has been talking about World War III for a while.
The market was smart about the 12-day war. Israel wasn't hitting the Iranian oil export infrastructure. If the Iranians tried to close the Straits of Hormuz, then there would no longer be any reason to restrain Israel from absolutely wrecking the Iranian oil export infrastructure. Even the Iranians could figure that out.
Ukraine is losing. Look at mainstream sources, "it's not that bad" all the time. Problem is, the lines keep moving west ... slowly, but west. The Ukrainians can't keep enough motivated infantry in the field. The Ukrainians must kill 4 Russians for every loss they suffer just to break even. To break the Russians, they'd need to kill at a 10 to 1 ratio, or destroy enough Russian energy infrastructure for the Russian economy to fail. I don't see either happening soon enough to save the Ukrainians from the lack of motivated infantry.
“Gold is center” if that’s the case, who has the most gold and why isn’t Italy part of larger conversation?
Ultimately society that can develop structure in its society tends to do well. Need natural resources for that to happen as precursor. So look towards nation that has a lot of natural resources but yet to figure out how to organize.
Hold on Doomberg. China REE bringing down auto OEMs is a bit much. Because of power seats? Spotted a few other over the tops (energy pairs are contingent on slack in supply chain). Don't get carried away.
These are some very fascinating long-term views. We are really in the middle of the fourth turning. This kind of environment is very supportive for gold, bitcoin, defence stocks, and oil & gas.
Supporters see it as tough-love reindustrialization; detractors, as inflationary populism. If global retaliation eases or exports boom, it works; otherwise, it might widen inequality. Overall, a solid strategy on paper, but execution feels like walking a tightrope.. Some say it's a circus already, so it may work.
The world shifted on 11-11-1918, just no one knew. The power center shifted from London to Washington. Europe never saw it and Hitler believed Germany could take it. In 1944 Bretton-Wood solidified the Washington center. We were the last man standing.
Where is the new power center shifting to? I always thought Bejing/Shanghai would be it. However, the demographics of China and Russia will prevent it. Only India has the demographics to sustain this power shift over the next 100 years.
That’s why we subscribe to Doomberg.
You just don’t get independent analysis often enough in this turbulent world .
🙏
That is a fascinating conversation...I find my views very much in line with their thinking!
Would be good to offer a "Doomberg market" that contains a few of your predictions. What is your poly account handle?
WOW! I didn't read the tea leaves correctly.
This is a sit-back-in-the-chair re-thinking of the markets.
Thanks Green Chicken!
Any predictions on the Islamic dominace in European countries/governments in the near future?
None that would elevate your mood, I'm afraid...
How can Netanyahu be replaced by EOY 2025? The Knesset is on recess until mid-October. Once the Knesset dissolves it's 90 days to have an election. You can't even have an election by EOY 2025. A new government is typically sworn in almost two months after the election. A week or so after the election the President acts someone to form a government, and then you get six weeks to form a government.
"Israel is in a very precarious situation right now after they failed to quickly decapitate Iran." Really? Elaborate. To me it looks like they won.
I like doom quite a bit and agree with a lot they say but I've found their Israel takes to be quite bad
I guess if you are in "short the West, short Europe" mode then you might also short Israel by mistake. I'm not super enamored with Netanyahu and I'm definitely not a fan of his coalition partners Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, but Doomberg clearly just does not understand the Israeli political system. There isn't enough time to replace Netanyahu. Also Netanyahu has been losing EVERY poll since October 7, even after Israel crushed Hezbollah and so on. He was losing before October 7 too because of the judicial reform.
Yep, I'm no expert myself at all but it's quite apparent when someone knows nothing about the topic or the country lol
I am a big fan of Israel and pay close attention to it. But I try to bet on it a lot on Manifold Markets to make sure I have correct beliefs.
As always Doomberg is interesting. The collapse of Ukraine would shake the world. If it’s a political revolution that reaches a deal with Russia that would definitely encourage China to up the pressure on Taiwan and in the South China Sea. It’s more about Western weakness than BRICS strength because the BRICS are not a thing in the sense of a one for all, all for one alliance. To her credit Pippa Malmgren has been talking about World War III for a while.
The market was smart about the 12-day war. Israel wasn't hitting the Iranian oil export infrastructure. If the Iranians tried to close the Straits of Hormuz, then there would no longer be any reason to restrain Israel from absolutely wrecking the Iranian oil export infrastructure. Even the Iranians could figure that out.
Ukraine is losing. Look at mainstream sources, "it's not that bad" all the time. Problem is, the lines keep moving west ... slowly, but west. The Ukrainians can't keep enough motivated infantry in the field. The Ukrainians must kill 4 Russians for every loss they suffer just to break even. To break the Russians, they'd need to kill at a 10 to 1 ratio, or destroy enough Russian energy infrastructure for the Russian economy to fail. I don't see either happening soon enough to save the Ukrainians from the lack of motivated infantry.
“Gold is center” if that’s the case, who has the most gold and why isn’t Italy part of larger conversation?
Ultimately society that can develop structure in its society tends to do well. Need natural resources for that to happen as precursor. So look towards nation that has a lot of natural resources but yet to figure out how to organize.
Hold on Doomberg. China REE bringing down auto OEMs is a bit much. Because of power seats? Spotted a few other over the tops (energy pairs are contingent on slack in supply chain). Don't get carried away.
I subscribe to DOOMBERG. A Well worth the money.
These are some very fascinating long-term views. We are really in the middle of the fourth turning. This kind of environment is very supportive for gold, bitcoin, defence stocks, and oil & gas.
The audit of the US Gold Reserve in Fort Knox suddenly went quiet.
What are the repercussions if it has already been plundered?
Supporters see it as tough-love reindustrialization; detractors, as inflationary populism. If global retaliation eases or exports boom, it works; otherwise, it might widen inequality. Overall, a solid strategy on paper, but execution feels like walking a tightrope.. Some say it's a circus already, so it may work.
The world shifted on 11-11-1918, just no one knew. The power center shifted from London to Washington. Europe never saw it and Hitler believed Germany could take it. In 1944 Bretton-Wood solidified the Washington center. We were the last man standing.
Where is the new power center shifting to? I always thought Bejing/Shanghai would be it. However, the demographics of China and Russia will prevent it. Only India has the demographics to sustain this power shift over the next 100 years.
I won't see it, but buckle up.
Like in the mule in Foundation nobody saw Pirate First coming :
https://mxtm.substack.com/p/off-ledger-empire-the-secret-balance