🔮 Trump Tariff Tease (Ukraine Edition)

5 Polymarkets on What’s Next In the Ukraine War

1. A Textbook Trump Tariff Tease

If you’ve been following the Trump tariff markets, you are no doubt familiar with the classic tariff-on-tariff-off maneuver: Trump announces massive sanctions, only to pause or reverse course days or hours later: the TACO.

Now he’s running the same playbook on Moscow. On July 11, Trump pre-announced a “major Russia-related statement,” which sent the Trump sanctions Russia by August market soaring as high as 60%.

But today - surprise - the tariffs didn’t materialize, causing the odds to collapse.

Instead, Trump announced a 50-day deadline for Russia to negotiate under the threat of punitive tariffs on countries doing business with Russia, ie secondary sanctions.

2. Ceasefire Odds Down-Only

Did Trump’s tariff threats increase the odds for a ceasefire?

Barely.

Ukraine ceasefire odds have been in free fall since late April when negotiations fell apart.

3. Russia Likely to Make Territorial Gains

It’s not clear what is driving Trump’s latest harsher tone towards Russia, but it could be related to several Polymarkets showing increasing odds for Russia to capture further land in eastern Ukraine.

• 🔮 68% odds Russia captures Yunakivka by Aug 31

• 🔮 11% odds Russia captures Pokrovsk by Aug 31 (61% by Dec. 31)

• 🔮 8% odds Russia captures Kupiansk by Aug 31 (37% by Dec. 31)

• 🔮 46% odds Russia captures Yablunivka by Aug 31

• 🔮 5% odds Russia captures Konstyantynivka by by Aug 31 (44% by Dec. 31)

4. US Recognition of Crimea?

While the territorial picture is worsening for Ukraine, the US doesn’t look like it will recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea anytime soon.

Odds have crashed from 13% today from as high as 50% in May, in parallel with declining ceasefire odds.

5. NATO on the Sidelines

Despite Trump’s newfound appetite to pressure Russia, direct Western military involvement still looks highly unlikely, with a 9% chance of NATO troops in Ukraine this year.

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