🔮 This Tool Finds Polymarket Traders with 96% Win Rates
Inside Polymarket Analytics, a free data platform built for pro prediction market traders
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The Oracle speaks with Primo Data, the creator of Polymarket Analytics, the largest third-party Polymarket data platform. The app gives traders and researchers a richer view of the activity in the Polymarket orderbook. We talk about what he learned building the app and studying the most profitable prediction market traders.
This interview has been condensed for length. All answers are Primo’s own.
Where did the idea for Polymarket Analytics come from?
I'm a data engineer, and got into blockchain because all the data is open and transparent. I’m also a political junkie, and when Biden dropped out I got obsessed with Polymarket. But I couldn't search all markets or see P&L for traders, basic stuff you'd expect. So I built it myself. I use Goldsky to index the on-chain data and the Polymarket Gamma API for off-chain data.
After I launched, I started to get a ton of interest from traders. They had the same problems I did: How much money are people actually betting? Who are the sharp traders? What's their edge? So I just started adding features they were asking for one by one.
A lot of the trader data is already available on Polymarket’s main site. What additional edge do traders get from your platform?
You can identify the sharp money versus casual traders. We have full leaderboards by category: crypto, politics, sports, mentions. For example, there's one trader called Axios with a 96% win rate on mention markets. What the hell is he doing? That's worth investigating.
The thing that really jumps out is that there are multiple profitable strategies, not just being right about predictions. As Mango Lassi found in his blog post, we see speed traders, liquidity providers, price action traders riding volatility trends, and bonders who compound on 95% probability bets. It's not all about longer term predictions, you can be fast reacting to news, provide liquidity, or just bond consistently.
Can you give some examples of these different trader types?
Domer is the classic example: he combines liquidity provision with actual prediction ability. He won big on the Pope market and wrote a whole thread explaining his logic. Then you have pure speed traders on mention markets (betting what will be said in a speech) who can get news faster than anyone else.
There's abeautifulmind who crushes sports betting, and during NBA playoffs we tracked one anonymous account winning hundreds of thousands consistently. The beauty is you can follow these patterns in real-time.
What features are traders using most to get an edge?
Three main things. First, P&L tracking over time, broken down by market category. You can see exactly when someone made $1,000, was it $500 on sports, $300 on Trump, $200 on Ukraine? That granularity helps you understand what's working for them.
The "Top Holders" feature on any market shows you the whales and minnows on both sides. Even the joke market about Trump appearing on Hawk Tuah Girl's podcast shows this whale dynamic.
Third, our trader activity feed shows biggest wins and losses over the last day, week, month. Someone just won $700k on the Romanian election. That's where stories emerge.
How do traders use this data practically?
The leaderboards by category are huge. You can filter for mentions traders and see Axios dominating with that 96% win rate. For sports, you find the consistently profitable accounts. One trader, HaileyWelsh, keeps showing up in our biggest wins feed for crypto trades, clearly an edge there.
The position search is powerful too. You can look at all positions that netted over $100k and see what patterns emerge. Are people winning on speed? Information? Contrarian bets?
What have you learned about the tendencies of profitable vs unprofitable traders?
Win rate has to be interpreted carefully because of bonders (high win rate on high probability markets), but it's still telling. The most successful traders often specialize. They're not trying to be good at everything, they find their edge and exploit it relentlessly.
Also, the scale is bigger than people think. We're tracking hundreds of millions in open interest across platforms. There's serious capital at work and starting to be more funds and larger players in the space.
Also, academics are reaching out for position and trade data. They want to study political betting patterns, sports trading behavior, and how prediction markets actually function. One researcher is specifically looking at intra-game sports trading patterns. The transparency creates research opportunities that don't exist anywhere else. Every trade, every position, every outcome is permanently recorded and searchable.
What features are you adding next?
The roadmap is basically whatever traders ask for repeatedly. If I hear a request once, it goes on the list. Multiple times, it gets prioritized. Traders keep asking for more granular data. I just expanded from top 10 wins to top 100 because people want deeper insights into performance patterns. I'm also working on total USDC holdings, not just what's in active positions, but sidelined capital.
Any final advice for traders looking to find an edge?
Use the category leaderboards religiously. Find traders with high win rates in specific niches and study their patterns. Don't try to be good at everything - find your edge and exploit it. The homepage activity feed is your best friend for spotting big moves as they happen.
Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.