🔮The Oracle: Harris Honeymoon Over?
PLUS: Will Harris Debate on Fox? ● Monkeypox Pandemic? ● Is Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive a Game Changer?
Did Harris’ Economic Speech Cut Her Lead?
The race tightened over the weekend. In Polymarket’s 2024 general election odds, Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump 51%-47%.
What Markets Say:
The market reacted sharply to Friday’s rollout of Harris’ economic plan. Panned by the Washington Post editorial board as “populist gimmicks,” the Harris plan included Federal controls on grocery prices, a $25,000 home buying subsidy, and a $6,000 child tax credit.
On Thursday August 15, Harris held a 54-44 lead over Trump, which by Saturday had dropped to a 49-49 tie, before recovering slightly.
The reaction was less volatile in markets for the six key swing states: Nevada flipped to a Trump lead and Trump gained a point in Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping point state.
What to Watch:
With over $600m in volume, Polymarket’s 2024 general election market is the largest and most liquid market in the world for the US presidential election.
This weekend’s move was sharper than other prediction markets. For example PredictIt has Harris leading 56-45.
Nate Silver’s model, which combines polling averages with fundamental factors such as economic indicators, is showing 53.5% Harris / 45.9 Trump.
How Many Debates?
The Trump and Harris campaigns have issued conflicting statements on the number and format of the presidential debates.
State of Play
There is one confirmed presidential debate, scheduled for September 10 and hosted by ABC.
The Harris campaign’s latest statement confirmed the ABC debate and said there will be another at an unspecified date in October.
Trump’s campaign said there will be three: Fox News, ABC, and NBC/Telemundo
What Markets Say
Polymarket shows two debates as the most likely scenario (64%), with a 7% chance that there are three debates.
There is a 15% chance of a Fox News debate.
Why It Matters
Agreeing to more debates is a higher risk play for a candidate. It carries more risk of gaffes, but also creates more opportunities to have a game-changing moment.
Harris changing her stance on a Fox debate could be a signal that her campaign is feeling the heat.
Monkeypox (Mpox) Pandemic this Year?
The WHO has declared monkeypox (mpox) a global health emergency following an outbreak of a new variant, Clade 1, in the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighboring countries. In Sweden, one case was confirmed of an individual who became infected while traveling in Africa, sparking concerns of a wider international outbreak.
What Markets Say
41% chance of a confirmed mpox case in the US by August 31
74% chance of a confirmed mpox case in the US by September 30
62% chance of 10+ mpox cases in the US by October 31
40% chance of 100+ mpox cases in the US by October 31
17% chance mpox declared a pandemic by the end of 2024.
Go Deeper
With a fatality rate of between 1-10%, the new variant is more transmissible and more severe then the 2022 variant, which had a fatality rate of .2%.
Mpox causes painful skin lesions and flu-like symptoms and has an incubation period of 1-11 days.
Mpox Clade 1 is not only transmitted sexually, but can also be passed via bodily contact and touching contaminated items, or through respiratory droplets.
Is Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive a Game Changer?
On August 6, Ukraine launched a surprise offensive into Russia where it seized around 400 square miles of territory in the Kursk Oblast.
What Markets Say
As Ukraine moves to cut off routes to the area and continues fortifying their positions, the market is optimistic on the chances for Kiev to hold onto its Kursk gains in the short run but pessimistic that it will cut much deeper into Russian territory.
Some have speculated that the offensive was intended to put Ukraine in a better negotiating position by pressuring Putin domestically or seizing territory to swap. However, the offensive does not seem to have impacted the odds for a ceasefire before October, which are below 10%.
96% chance of Ukraine holding Kursk through August 31
69% chance of Ukraine holding Kursk through October 31
4% chance of Ukraine capturing the Kursk Nuclear Plant (about 25 miles northeast from the current lines) by August 31
Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.
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