STALK THE OSCARS
Inside the wallets of Polymarket's sharpest awards show traders
The Oscars are finally here.
The glitz. The glamour. The predicting.
Our friends at Stand, a pro trading terminal for Polymarket, are back with a look at four traders you need to keep an eye on tonight.
Enter Stand…
When we’re looking to find smart traders in a certain niche, we start with Polymarket Analytics (the best prediction market history book around) to look for historical winners in the ‘Oscars’ and ‘Awards’ categories.
Once you’ve found your traders, Stand is the place to watch their moves in real time as you can filter by category.
Trader #1: ImJustKen
Oscars Category PnL: $41,567 | Win Rate: 78.8% | Gains / Losses: $44,461 / $2,868
Awards Category PnL: $75,508 | Win Rate: 72.2% | Gains / Losses: $88,537 / $13,029
It’s well known that @ImJustKen (aka Domer) is a top Polymarket trader. But few appreciate his category-level dominance in the Oscars. He’s sitting on $41,567 PnL with a 78.8% win rate. That suggests he’s finding narrative shifts before the crowd catches on.
Example? Domer’s biggest position heading into the Oscars is Timothée Chalamet “No” for Best Actor. Looking at the chart, we can see how Chalamet’s odds have collapsed in the wake of his controversial takes on the beloved American art forms of ballet and opera.
Fading Chalamet is conventional wisdom now, but Domer was on this trade before it was priced in, and is sitting on nearly a 100% gain before the red carpet is even set up.
Trader #2: wolfmoon
Oscars Category PnL: $4,514 | Win Rate: 61.9% | Gains / Losses: $7,749 / $3,235
@wolfmoon is going heavy on a One Battle After Another sweep: when one film dominates Best Picture, the adjacent categories (Director, Screenplay, Cinematography) tend to follow, and those markets are usually slower to price it in.
Game plan for Oscars night: watch the wallet to see if wolf starts trimming Best Picture while holding the side categories. If he holds or adds to both, he’s doubling down on One Battle running the table.
Current positions:
Trader #3: @11122
Oscars Category PnL: $10,080 | Win Rate: 69.8% | Gains / Losses: $19,184 / $9,104
@11122 is playing another common strategy: holding a large consensus anchor position, plus a few longer shot side bets in the Best Supporting Actor polymarket.
If you see the wallet consolidating Supporting Actor positions into one name, that’s worth paying attention to.
Current positions:
Bonus: @weflyhigh (one to fade)
Oscars Category PnL: -$11,174 | Win Rate: 33.3% | Gains / Losses: $478 / $11,653
Under no circumstances should you copy trade @weflyhigh in entertainment markets. What we have here is a sports trader who wandered off the reservation. He crushes on hockey (#2 overall) and Olympics (#1 overall). Oscars? Not so much.
The silver lining: Stand’s copy/counter trade feature lets you filter by category, meaning you can ride weflyhigh’s athletic instincts and fade his film takes simultaneously. Some of his current Oscars holdings:
Closing
You can follow all four traders on Stand with one click and get their trades in real time. For those looking to put these insights to work, Stand’s copy and counter trading tools make it easy to act on what you see.
Sunday morning is the calm before the storm.
If the Oscars market feels “ho-hum” right now, that’s the perfect time to watch who is adding to their position, and who is quietly heading for the exit.
Disclaimer
Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. All odds are time sensitive and subject to change. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data is viewable globally.