🔮Over Before Midnight

How Election Night Went Down on Polymarket

The table above shows the first time Polymarket odds touched 95% for Trump to win various races vs. when the Associated Press made formal calls. AP calls are still outstanding in two states as of writing. 

It’s important to note that the 95% level does not represent a formal “call” by Polymarket. There is a different and more stringent process for actually resolving the markets to pay out bets, and in some markets like Arizona the odds hit 95% before declining slightly.

95% is an arbitrary level, but one that represents a fairly high level of certainty, comparable to when your favorite pundit might say “I’ve seen enough.”  

The bottom line is that watching Polymarket gave you several hours of informational edge compared to major news outlets, perhaps allowing you to get a few more hours of sleep last night. 

The informational value of prediction market odds are especially useful in real-time vote counting, as users are incentivized to be early to price in new information, as Haseeb Qureshi pointed out in a tweet on Polymarket’s election night track record: 

What’s Next?

House of Representatives races are still being counted, but odds are heavily favoring a Republican trifecta, given the uniform shift to the right across the country. Here are some markets to watch in the coming days:

• Trump’s Cabinet: RFK Jr.? (🔮 67%)  Tulsi? (🔮 63%) Elon? (🔮 43%) 

• House Control (🔮 98% chance Republican)

• Will Biden Finish his Term? (🔮 93% chance)

• Joe Biden Pardons Hunter? (🔮44% chance) 

• Inauguration on Jan 20? (🔮 96% chance Trump is inaugurated) 

• Trump Ends Ukraine War by April 19 (🔮 40% chance) 

• Trump Declassifies UFO files in first 100 days? (🔮40% chance) 

• Who Will Trump Pardon in First 100 Days?

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Disclaimer

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.