Seven days from today, Donald Trump will take the oath of office to become the 47th President of the United States. Hereās what the latest Polymarket odds say about whatās in store:
Who Will Be There?
According to the latest odds:
Joe Biden (š® 98%) Heās probably going to make it.
Javier Milei (š®95% ) Argentinaās libertarian president is the most likely foreign head of state to attend.
Mark Zuckerberg (š® 82%) His odds skyrocketed from 35% after āBased Zuckā appeared on Joe Rogan.
Michelle Obama (š® 71%) Her odds are down 20% after skipping Jimmy Carterās funeral.
Benjamin Netanyahu (š®11% ) : The Israeli PMās odds started the month as high as 85%, but plunged after it was reported he didnāt get a formal invite.
Tesla Humanoid Robot (š® 5%): The greatest product placement ad in history (a market suggestion from the Dumb Money podcast) probably wonāt come to pass.
Ratings, Ratings, Ratings
Trumpās inauguration committee is expected to more than double its fundraising totals from the last time around, mostly due to higher corporate donations. But how many people will watch on TV?
The two most likely brackets are 26-29M (š® 25% odds) and 29-32M (š® 29% odds). This would put Trump somewhere between Obama second term (7ish percent of the US population) and Trump first term ratings (9ish percent of the population).
What Will Trump Say?
Trumpās second inaugural address is 66% likely to be longer than his first, which clocked in at 16 minutes.
Unfortunately for the tampon bros, the mention market for Trumpās inaugural address ā where users predict what words will be said during an event ā is forecasting a fairly dull speech. Hereās whatās in store, benchmarked against Trumpās first inaugural speech:
Pre-Inauguration BTC Dump?
On Wednesday, crypto markets were rattled by a headline that the Biden administration was āgiven the green lightā to sell $6.5b of seized Bitcoin onto the market in its final days. The coins, seized from the Silk Road online marketplace in 2013 were the largest crypto asset seizure in history.
The 69,370 seized coins, which are still sitting unsold in the FBIās wallet, are envisioned to be a core part of Trumpās proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. And a last minute open-market dump by the Biden administration could send the price of Bitcoin tumbling and make it harder for Trump to bootstrap the reserve, forcing the government to re-buy the coins, rather than simply hodling the seized coins.
On Polymarket, the headline was quickly priced into, and then out of the market as additional reports circulated suggesting additional appeals and administrative steps are likely that will delay the sale further. Currently thereās just an 8% chance the DOJ will sell any portion of its BTC holdings before Inauguration.
Nevertheless, the price of Bitcoin ( $91k this morning) continues to dump on macro fears connected with increasing government borrowing costs. Odds that the 10-year bond yield hits 5% by July (š® 61% chance and rising) have more than tripled since last Mondayās newsletter.
Will Trump Save Tiktok?
On Friday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on the Protecting Americans from Foreign Controlled Applications Act, which would effectively ban TikTok in the US unless its parent company ByteDance sells the service.
Hereās the current state of play on this law which is set to go into effect on January 19:
Tiktok is Banned by May (š® 68% chance): Justicesā skepticism of claims during the arguments caused these odds to shoot up from ~25% to their current level.
Will ByteDance Sell by April? (š® 17% chance): One way for TikTok to keep operating in the US is if its Chinese parent company sells the app to a US company. The company has strongly denied that they will sell, however, stating that it canāt let its addiction algorithm fall into the wrong hands.
Trump Saves Tiktok in First 100 Days? (š® 52% chance and rising): Trump has an ambiguous policy towards the service. He issued an executive order in 2020 critical of the appās Chinese influence, but vowed to save it during the campaign and has recently posted approvingly of it on Truth Social. As president, Trump would have a number of options to keep TikTok running, from simply not enforcing the ban, to negotiating a sale.
If TikTok gets booted, the biggest beneficiary would be Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram. With TikTokās crown jewel algo and 170 million pairs of American eyeballs at stake, perhaps thereās more going on with Zuckās recent anti DEI blitz than meets the eye?
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Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.
Why would the us capital need to be locked down ā¦ I mean no one has ever attacted it right?