🔮 NOTHING EVER HAPPENS (UKRAINE EDITION)
5 Polymarkets on what’s next in Ukraine
On Polymarket, the dimming prospects for a Ukraine ceasefire are apparent across a number of markets.
1. 2025 Ceasefire Odds Drop Below 50%
Trump is said to be “weary and frustrated” with both Russia and Ukraine as the latest round of Witkoff diplomacy is not gaining traction.
While many have focused on the Oval Office shouting match between Zelensky and Vance as a key turning point, the ceasefire odds recovered soon thereafter.
It wasn’t until Trump cut off intel sharing with Ukraine a few weeks later that odds for a ceasefire really started to drop.
👉 Follow Ukraine 2025 Ceasefire Odds
2. Russia Likely to Make Further Territorial Gains
Polymarket users are forecasting that Russia is likely to capture more of eastern Ukraine this year:
3. Trump Done?
Despite all the talk of Trump’s frustration, he is unlikely to pull out of the negotiations in the short term.
👉 Will Trump Exit Ukraine Talks before July?
4. Maybe the New Pope Can Help?
On May 19, Trump announced he was considering getting the Pope involved in hosting peace talks.
Can Pope Leo, the all-American, 100:1 dark horse, pull off another miracle?
There’s a 1-in-5 chance he hosts the talks by September.
👉 Follow Odds for Vatican Peace Talks
5. NATO Probably Won’t Step In Either
Despite tough talk from some European leaders, it’s unlikely that NATO troops will find themselves fighting on Ukrainian soil this year. A far more likely scenario (🔮 26% odds) is that Ukraine agrees to NOT join NATO this year.
👉 Follow NATO troops in Ukraine odds
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