Pope Francisā death on Easter Sunday caught traders off guard.
But markets are forward looking, so letās not dwell on that.
The important thing is whoās next.
There are currently 252 Catholic cardinals, any of which could theoretically become the next big dog in Vatican City, but only four serious players with odds over 5% on Polymarket.
Surveying the papal content landscape this morning, there are plenty of articles out there on the selection process but nothing that addresses the needs of traders in this Polymarket: āWill the next Pope be a manlet?ā
As always in prediction markets, itās critical to be aware of the rules. In this market, āmanletā is defined as follows:
According to the internet, the average height for males globally is 5 feet 7.5 inches. So by these standards, itās possible for the next pope to be just above average height globally and also a āmanlet.ā Got it?
Onward.
The next step is to enter ā[candidate name] + heightā into your search engine of choice. However, you will find that Vatican journalists have been derelict in covering this aspect of papal suitability.
The next stop is to find an AI agent that has not been brainwashed by the woke mind virus and willing to do some height estimation dirty work for us.
Claude doesnāt want to play ball.
But Elon Muskās Grok quickly spits out a several hundred word height estimate that looks pretty good.
So without any further ado, we present The Oracleās papal manlet power rankings:
Pietro Parolin
Age: 70
Bio: Italian nationality. Secretary of State of the Vatican since 2013. Close adviser to Pope Francis and a seasoned diplomat. Served in the Holy Seeās diplomatic service in Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela.
Controversies:
Supports ādialogueā on same-sex couples
Outspoken against abortion
Called gender theory āideological colonizationā
Manlet Analysis: Grok estimates his height as 5'9" with an 85% confidence interval of 5'8" to 5'10". Parolinās diplomatic career has produced numerous photos of him with world leaders whose heights are well-established. This makes it easier to have a higher confidence in Grokās estimate which puts him just above manlet range. ( Manlet: ā)
Luis Antonio Tagle
Age: 67
Bio: Filipino cardinal, former Archbishop of Manila, and current Pro-Prefect for the Section of First Evangelization. Known for his advocacy for the poor.
Controversies:
Criticized for weak condemnation of extrajudicial killings in the Philippines
Criticized for equating various social ills to murder, which some found overly politically cautious
Manlet Analysis: Tagle was often photographed alongside Pope Francis, whose height is well-documented at 5'9". In the images, Tagle appears to be slightly shorter than Francis. When standing side by side, the top of Tagle's head seems to reach roughly the level of Francis's nose or chin, suggesting a height difference of 3-5 inches. Estimated Height: 5ā3 - 5ā7 (Manlet: ā )
PĆ©ter ErdÅ
Age: 72
Bio: Hungarian nationality. Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, and Primate of Hungary since 2003. Canon lawyer and theologian, he has led the Hungarian Church and served as president of the Council of Bishops' Conferences of Europe.
Controversies:
Strongly opposes same-sex marriage, abortion, euthanasia, and birth control
Prohibits Communion for divorced and remarried Catholics
Manlet Analysis: ErdÅ was frequently photographed towering over the late Pope Francis, suggesting a height difference of about 4ā6 inches. Given Francis' known height of 5ā9ā, this puts PĆ©ter ErdÅās height in the range of (6'1" to 6'3"). ( Manlet: ā)
Peter Turkson
Age: 76
Bio: Ghanaian cardinal, former president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, and a leading voice on social justice and ecology. Made a cardinal in 2003 and is known for his work on climate change.
Controversies:
Equated homosexuality with pedophilia
Screened a controversial video about Muslim immigration
Refuses to endorse condom use to combat AIDS in Africa
Manlet Analysis: Turkson appears to be slightly taller than Pope Francis. When standing side by side, the top of Pope Francis's head reaches roughly the level of Turkson's chin or mouth, suggesting a height difference of about 2 to 4 inches. With 85% confidence, Peter Turkson's height is estimated to be between (5'10" to 6'2"). ( Manlet: ā)
Bottom Line
The market seems to agree with Grokās height handicapping.
The overall odds for Tagle, the only top tier candidate below 5ā8ā, are 30%. And this matches the current odds in the manlet pope market of 31%.
So barring the 1% chance for a dark horse, it looks like Tagle is the only shot we have for average to slightly below average height representation in the Vatican.
As always with papal betting markets, we remind Catholics that while betting on papal conclaves has a long and storied history, the practice is frowned upon and could even get you excommunicated.
Consult your priest or spiritual advisor before confirming any transaction.
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