🔮 Manlet Pope?
Will the next Pope be short in stature? The Oracle investigates.
Pope Francis’ death on Easter Sunday caught traders off guard.
But markets are forward looking, so let’s not dwell on that.
The important thing is who’s next.
There are currently 252 Catholic cardinals, any of which could theoretically become the next big dog in Vatican City, but only four serious players with odds over 5% on Polymarket.
Surveying the papal content landscape this morning, there are plenty of articles out there on the selection process but nothing that addresses the needs of traders in this Polymarket: “Will the next Pope be a manlet?”
As always in prediction markets, it’s critical to be aware of the rules. In this market, “manlet” is defined as follows:
According to the internet, the average height for males globally is 5 feet 7.5 inches. So by these standards, it’s possible for the next pope to be just above average height globally and also a “manlet.” Got it?
Onward.
The next step is to enter ‘[candidate name] + height’ into your search engine of choice. However, you will find that Vatican journalists have been derelict in covering this aspect of papal suitability.
The next stop is to find an AI agent that has not been brainwashed by the woke mind virus and willing to do some height estimation dirty work for us.
Claude doesn’t want to play ball.
But Elon Musk’s Grok quickly spits out a several hundred word height estimate that looks pretty good.
So without any further ado, we present The Oracle’s papal manlet power rankings:
Pietro Parolin
Age: 70
Bio: Italian nationality. Secretary of State of the Vatican since 2013. Close adviser to Pope Francis and a seasoned diplomat. Served in the Holy See’s diplomatic service in Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela.
Controversies:
Supports “dialogue” on same-sex couples
Outspoken against abortion
Called gender theory “ideological colonization”
Manlet Analysis: Grok estimates his height as 5'9" with an 85% confidence interval of 5'8" to 5'10". Parolin’s diplomatic career has produced numerous photos of him with world leaders whose heights are well-established. This makes it easier to have a higher confidence in Grok’s estimate which puts him just above manlet range. ( Manlet: ❌)
Luis Antonio Tagle
Age: 67
Bio: Filipino cardinal, former Archbishop of Manila, and current Pro-Prefect for the Section of First Evangelization. Known for his advocacy for the poor.
Controversies:
Criticized for weak condemnation of extrajudicial killings in the Philippines
Criticized for equating various social ills to murder, which some found overly politically cautious
Manlet Analysis: Tagle was often photographed alongside Pope Francis, whose height is well-documented at 5'9". In the images, Tagle appears to be slightly shorter than Francis. When standing side by side, the top of Tagle's head seems to reach roughly the level of Francis's nose or chin, suggesting a height difference of 3-5 inches. Estimated Height: 5”3 - 5”7 (Manlet: ✅)
Péter Erdő
Age: 72
Bio: Hungarian nationality. Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, and Primate of Hungary since 2003. Canon lawyer and theologian, he has led the Hungarian Church and served as president of the Council of Bishops' Conferences of Europe.
Controversies:
Strongly opposes same-sex marriage, abortion, euthanasia, and birth control
Prohibits Communion for divorced and remarried Catholics
Manlet Analysis: Erdő was frequently photographed towering over the late Pope Francis, suggesting a height difference of about 4–6 inches. Given Francis' known height of 5’9”, this puts Péter Erdő’s height in the range of (6'1" to 6'3"). ( Manlet: ❌)
Peter Turkson
Age: 76
Bio: Ghanaian cardinal, former president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, and a leading voice on social justice and ecology. Made a cardinal in 2003 and is known for his work on climate change.
Controversies:
Equated homosexuality with pedophilia
Screened a controversial video about Muslim immigration
Refuses to endorse condom use to combat AIDS in Africa
Manlet Analysis: Turkson appears to be slightly taller than Pope Francis. When standing side by side, the top of Pope Francis's head reaches roughly the level of Turkson's chin or mouth, suggesting a height difference of about 2 to 4 inches. With 85% confidence, Peter Turkson's height is estimated to be between (5'10" to 6'2"). ( Manlet: ❌)
Bottom Line
The market seems to agree with Grok’s height handicapping.
The overall odds for Tagle, the only top tier candidate below 5’8”, are 30%. And this matches the current odds in the manlet pope market of 31%.
So barring the 1% chance for a dark horse, it looks like Tagle is the only shot we have for average to slightly below average height representation in the Vatican.
As always with papal betting markets, we remind Catholics that while betting on papal conclaves has a long and storied history, the practice is frowned upon and could even get you excommunicated.
Consult your priest or spiritual advisor before confirming any transaction.
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