MAGA Civil War?
The Fight Over Immigration Heats Up
While most Americans were exchanging gifts around the Christmas tree, their extremely online uncles were scrolling X to follow a brewing civil war on the right.
The debate centered on the issue of H1-B visas, intended to bring skilled immigrants to fill technical jobs, which critics argue should go to Americans. Before we go further, let’s look at some relevant Polymarket moves over the last few days for context:
David Sacks odds to be part of the Trump administration: fell from 75% to 33%
Odds Vivek Ramaswamy out as head of DOGE by July: rose from 12% to 17%
Odds Sriram Krishnan un-appointed as Trump’s AI coordinator: 11% (new market)
Odds Trump Eliminates the H1-B visa in his first 100 days: Steady at 9% (new market)
Odds Trump Comments on the Immigration Debate today?: Declined from 34% to 19%
Federal jobs eliminated by Elon / DOGE: <25K (the lowest bracket) increased to 37%
Choose Your Fighter
Since the debate is still almost entirely contained to X, this article draws on recent posts to explain what’s going down.
Sriram Krishnan: Trump’s tapping of Krishnan, a former tech VC, as a senior AI advisor on December 22, set off the controversy. Krishnan, in his long Silicon Valley career, has spoken in favor of expanding the H1-B program and removing the country cap on the visa type.
The Groypers: This group of ultra-nationalist accounts (recognizable online as Pepe the Frog but fatter, uglier, and nude) saw the appointment of Krishnan as a signal that Trump was selling out American workers in favor of the Silicon Valley elite.
Elon Musk: Among the first targets of the groypers was tech billionaire and co-lead of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Elon is aligned with the tech-MAGA wing, who supports the Trump agenda to boot low-skilled illegal immigrants but admit more legal skilled workers. Musk has reply-boosted posts favoring foreign tech talent without weighing-in heavily himself.
Vivek Ramaswamy: Like Musk, the Indian-American co-head of DOGE has also advocated for reforming the H1-B program, including moving from a lottery to a merit-based system. Most Trump associates have tread lightly in the debate. Ramaswamy, however, belly flopped onto the third rail in a December 26th post that blamed Zack Morris-loving culture for America’s supposed lack of engineering competitiveness.
This tweet, more than any other comment, drew the ire of the immigration-hawk right, and the post has now been viewed over 72 million times. Given that this was the most bombastic shot in the debate so far, it’s surprising that his odds to be removed from his post at DOGE by July are only up slightly to 17%.
David Sacks: Tapped by Trump as crypto and AI czar, Sacks defended Krishnan and called the attacks “crude,” but has not counter-punched directly at any of the anti-immigration voices. But for his efforts, Sacks has seen his Polymarket odds fall the most out of all the relevant players; his odds to be part of the Trump administration dropping over 40% over the past 48 hours, in one of the highest volatility markets on the platform. So much for playing the peacemaker.
Donald Trump: What about the big guy? Trump has, so far, not made any comments on the debate, preferring to let his teammates duke it out online. It is unlikely that Trump does away with the H1-B visa program entirely (🔮 9% odds program cut in first 100 days), but if history is any guide, he could curtail it significantly. During his first term, H1-B visa rejection rates soared from 6% in 2015 to 24% in 2018 and other administrative hurdles were introduced that slowed admissions.
What’s Next?
The battle escalated recently with several immigration hawks complaining that their ‘verified’ badges and other functions have disappeared from their X accounts, in what they call retaliation from the Musk camp. Escalating cries of censorship could hurt Musks’ play to make X the dominant place for political debate on the right.
Another player who so far has stayed silent is JD Vance. Married to an Indian-American, and a key part of the Silicon Valley-MAGA coalition, Vance has not been active on X since a wholesome Christmas-eve biscuit post.
Vance has staked out America-first immigration views but is also seen as a bridge between MAGA and the Silicon Valley elite, so a public comment from the VP-elect could mark a significant shift in the debate.
The immigration debate is the second major schism in the Trump coalition that has emerged before inauguration day. The first was the split between house Republicans among big spenders and deficit hawks that played out with the government shutdown drama.
This time, the Trump coalition is split between its newest member, the Silicon Valley business elite and the nationalist immigration skeptics who have been a loyal part of the Trump base since day one. Whatever happens next, the conflict does seem to be zero-sum with no obvious way for Trump to placate both sides.
Disclaimer
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HB-1 Visas are not the problem. Yes, they should be restricted so as not to compete with Americans with tech skills, but focusing on this issue is self-defeating. It is simply not a serious problem for the economy. The USA has 50 million illegals (Yes, it may be more), with most of them useless eaters that are costing the economy upwards of 5 Trillion a year when you take into account all of the damage they cause. For example, each child is special needs and costs about $50,000 to educate, feed, provide medical care, etc. They send home almost a trillion dollars yearly in remittances to their home country. If you use five as the velocity of money, that's 5 trillion dollars of economic activity, and our economy loses yearly. Then you add up all direct and indirect costs, at least 5 Trillion. Why not offer each of them $10,000 in cash to return to their native lands? That would cost just a Trillion dollars. We save 4 trillion the first year and 5 trillion a year afterward. Problem solved. Of course, some may refuse, so we put a bounty on them, which is $10,000 for each catch and identification. Remember that House seats are awarded based on population, including illegals. The blue states would lose about 40 House seats, and the illegal voting problem would be solved.
I didn't think I'd see such a clickbaity title on Substack. Alas, here we are.