After a highly unusual 6-day streak with no on-camera statements, Donald Trump spoke live yesterday, where he announced that the military had “shot out" a Venezuelan drug boat, killing 11 alleged members of the Tren de Aragua organization.
A US Navy contingent of destroyers and amphibious assault troops is parked off the coast of Venezuela, and a US statement later turned up the heat on Caracas by linking the organization to Venezuela’s government:
TDA is a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, operating under the control of Nicolas Maduro, responsible for mass murder, drug trafficking, sex trafficking, and acts of violence and terror across the United States and Western Hemisphere.
On Polymarket, the strike briefly spiked odds for a US-Venezuela military engagement by end-October. Is this strike the first shot in a wider campaign against the country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves?
Here’s what Polymarket traders think will happen next with Trump and Venezuela:
1. Trump Not Resigning
The biggest news from yesterday was that Trump is very much still in power.
Odds for Trump to leave office this year spiked as high as 13% yesterday before the public event calmed things down. ‘Trump out’ polymarkets were by far the most viewed and traded on Tuesday.
With 6% odds to be out of power this year, Trump is roughly on par with Vladimir Putin (🔮 5% odds out of power this year) and more secure than Netanyahu (🔮 11%) and Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei (🔮 18%).
2. Maduro Days Numbered?
Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro has a 17% chance of leaving office this year, with moves in these odds tied to key moments in the US-Venezuela relationship.
The largest spikes in ‘Maduro out’ odds occurred in early January when he was inaugurated following an election in which both Polymarket and the US Government recognized Maduro’s opponent as the winner.
A January 31 deal to release 6 detained Americans in Venezuela marked a cooling in the market. But this reversed sharply on the news that Trump deployed three destroyers off the coast of the country.
As
suggested in our recent interview and argues more fully here, the anti-cartel operations are likely a fig leaf for US interest in Venezuela, which include access to the world’s largest oil reserves that have seen massive underinvestment after decades of sanctions.3. Guyana Gambit?
What might kick off such a conflict?
There is a long-standing border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana, its neighbor to the east. There have been the usual border skirmishes in the disputed territory, but the status quo has been steady since 2023 when Venezuela sent 5,000 troops to the border region.
Is this the spark? Probably not.
The market only sees an 8-9% chance that Venezuela invades Guyana this year, and this has been on a downward trend since Trump deployed naval assets to the region.
4. “Boots on the Ground?”
How soon could more action be coming?
It’s notable that the phrase “boots on the ground” spiked to over 75% odds in the weekly Trump mentions polymarket.
While of course the phrase could come up in various contexts, these mentions markets offer a unique insight into what’s top of mind for Trump on any given week.
5. Will He Do It?
Following Trump’s announcement of the strike, odds for US military engagement in Venezuela by end-October spiked and quickly receded.
However this morning, they jumped from 20 to 24% on comments from Pete Hegseth on Fox news that suggested the strike was not a one-off:
While Hegseth left the question of “regime change” up to presidential prerogative, the message was clear that the US is now holding Maduro personally responsible for Venezuela’s drug activity, and that yesterday’s strike is the start of a new “kinetic” US posture towards Venezuela, not the end.
Disclaimer
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US forces deployed to support regime change in Venezuela seems like the most plausible explanation according to this video, however the size of the forces suggests most of the work will need to be done by local Venezuelans themselves.
The US will likely deploy "boots on the ground" but only in well targeted missions in support of domestic insurrectionists or for targeted extraction missions, like capturing Maduro if the opportunity arises.
At this point, the size of US ground forces deployed to the region is not enough for a repeat of the Panama invasion and the subsequent forceful removal and capture of Manuel Noriega.
The motivation for the US is also very very obvious: OIL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0OikJiUC9c