⚽ Liverpool and the Wildcard

As Polymarket’s largest market heats up, Liverpool surges ahead in the Champions League

Feb 06, 2025

By Fabian Santos

Now that the election is behind us, Champions League soccer has taken the top-volume spot on Polymarket, with nearly $800m in trading. Last week marked the end of league play, with 24 of the 36 teams advancing to the knockout stage.

Easy Schedule?

In the Champions League, where not all teams face each other in the first rounds, the “fixture difficulty” metric, which considers the quality of opponents, is critical to understanding the current Polymarket top three:

Liverpool (🔮 18% to win the Champions League) had by far the toughest schedule out of the top three, nevertheless, they still topped the league with an impressive record.
Despite beating Bayern Munich 4-1, Barcelona (🔮 13%) had the third easiest schedule out of the 36 teams in the competition, a factor that casts doubt on their impressive ranking.
Arsenal’s schedule (🔮 13%) fell in the middle of the pack, facing tough opposition like Inter and PSG, as well as weaker teams like Girona and Monaco. But with Arsenal, there’s always the nagging feeling that something will go wrong eventually as the team has never won the Champions League.

Arne Slot’s Liverpool finished the League Phase with the best record in the competition: 7 wins and 1 loss.

Two League Phase-defining matches for the Reds were the 4-0 battering of Bayer Leverkusen with an incredible 3 goals from Colombian Star Luis Diaz and their 2-0 win over Real Madrid, where they easily dispatched the 15-time league winners effortlessly, subjecting Carlo Ancelotti to the Arne Slot Penitentiary.

Looking at the data, there are many reasons to favor Liverpool, especially when you compare the caliber of teams they have faced versus that of the other favourites, FC Barcelona and Arsenal.

Liverpool had one of the toughest schedules in the League Phase, going up against teams like Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, yet didn’t concede a single goal against them. Despite the tough schedule, they still managed to finish top of the 36-team table, proving just how strong and consistent they’ve been.

And it’s not just in Europe where Liverpool are shining—Liverpool is also the 78% favorite to win the Premier League, with the chance to stretch to a nine-point lead at the top of the table if they win their postponed game against Everton.

With a squad packed with experience, led by Virgil van Dijk, Alexis Mac Allister, and Mohamed Salah, they’ve got everything needed to go all the way. If they keep this momentum going, Liverpool could be on their way to lifting a seventh Champions League trophy.

Big Money Dark Horse

It’s notable that the teams with the highest odds don’t always draw the most trade volume. The graph above highlights a disconnect between who’s favored to win and where the Champions League volume is flowing. Inter Milan, making up 10% of total trading ($78M), has drawn by far the highest volume despite just a 6% chance of winning. Why?

Inter could be one of the most undervalued teams in this market. They’ve been defensively solid, conceding just one goal in eight Champions League matches, and have Lautaro Martínez, one of Europe’s top strikers. Their 2023 Champions League final appearance also adds experience that might appeal to those looking beyond raw probability.

This level of trade volume might suggest that some see Inter’s odds as mispriced, expecting a shift as the tournament progresses. More broadly, it reflects how betting activity isn’t solely about picking the winner—it often revolves around perceived value and potential upside, which Inter seems to offer in abundance.

While Liverpool looks like the obvious pick, Inter Milan is the wildcard, with Barcelona and Arsenal in between. This year’s Champions League, with its shift from the traditional group stage to a 36-team single league phase, makes the path to this year’s final in Munich feel more unpredictable than ever.

Disclaimer

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