🏈 Is Jayden Daniels a Lock for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Can anyone catch up to the Commanders QB?
🔮Welcome back to The Oracle. Sports chaser today for a break from our election blitz. We’ll be back next week with a retrospective on the race.
Eight weeks into the NFL season, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (🔮 82.5%) has surged as the heavy favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, well ahead of Broncos QB Bo Nix (🔮 8.4%) and Bears QB Caleb Williams (🔮 6.0%).
Daniels’ odds have more than doubled since the season began thanks in part to a thrilling win over Williams’ Bears – while other contenders like Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. have faded as Daniels separates himself from the pack.
QB Supremacy: Recent Award Trends
Offensive Rookie of the Year has historically leaned toward quarterbacks, with QBs claiming the honor half of the time since 2010. As the league has evolved into a more pass-heavy landscape, wide receivers have made inroads too, winning the award in two of the last three seasons (Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase in 2021 and Jets WR Garrett Wilson in 2022).
While running backs still find success — most recently Saquon Barkley in 2018 — the award has clearly shifted toward players who thrive in today’s aerial-focused offenses, putting quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams at a natural advantage.
Daniels Takes Complete Control
As it stands, the Offensive Rookie of the Year race is Jayden Daniels’ to lose. The Commanders QB has seen his odds soar to 81%, up from his opening odds of 32% as he’s led Washington to a surprising 7-2 record atop the NFC East with poise and playmaking ability well beyond his years.
Daniels has stacked up league-leading stats among rookies, ranking 13th in passing yards, second in completion percentage and boasting the top-ranked advanced efficiency metrics that have propelled Washington into the playoff picture. He’s also continued his dominance as a dual threat—only Lamar Jackson has rushed for more yards among QBs this season.
Daniels’ control over the OROY race is largely due to his ability to deliver in clutch moments. His Week 8 showdown with Bears QB Caleb Williams was billed as a clash between the top two rookies and Daniels more than lived up to the hype.
Playing through a rib injury, Daniels capped off the Commanders’ win with an improbable game-winning Hail Mary—an instant-classic that not only solidified his lead over Williams but also became a defining highlight for his OROY campaign. Since then his odds have reached season highs, making him the clear frontrunner.
The Challenger: Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams, the former #1 overall pick and Daniels’ closest competitor, currently sits at 9.5% in the odds market—well below Daniels but still within striking distance. After a sluggish start, Williams has helped the Bears to an unexpected 4-3 start, showing glimpses of the talent that made him the top pick in the draft. He played incredibly in Weeks 5 and 6, putting together back-to-back performances with multiple touchdown passes and efficient passing metrics.
While he couldn’t pull off a win against Daniels in their head-to-head matchup this past week, he has steadily improved and remains a legitimate contender, especially if Daniels’ injury lingers or affects his production down the stretch. This being said, his pedestrian performance vs. Daniels and the Commanders (less than 50% completion percentage, 131 yards and zero touchdowns) did not help his case in the short term.
Williams’ path to the award would likely require the Bears to remain in playoff contention and replicate their effectiveness through the air in Weeks 5 and 6 (for context, this was against the Panthers and Jaguars). For now though, his odds reflect the reality that Daniels has a firmer grip on the narrative and more signature moments—a critical element in this type of award race.
The Contenders: Bo Nix, Brian Thomas Jr, Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Rising
Among the other contenders, Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. and Broncos QB Bo Nix have each seen their odds rise the most off of season low values, with Thomas now at 🔮 1.7% and Nix rocketing up to 🔮 8.6%. Both would need extraordinary second halves to catch Daniels – though Thomas has flashed the potential to make a late push if he can continue building on recent performances.
Thomas might be the best WR in the rookie class, ranking in the top 10 in receiving yards and touchdowns as the clear #1 target in Jacksonville. He exited the Jaguars’ Week 8 game late with a chest injury, but all signs seem to indicate it isn’t a serious injury that will result in him missing a significant amount of time. With the Jaguars dealing with some injury concerns to key offensive playmakers (RB Travis Etienne, WR Christian Kirk, WR Gabe Davis) and the growing trend of rookie WRs improving over the second half of the season, keep an eye on BTJr.
Nix, being a QB, might give him the best chance of making a strong push through the second half of the season if he can keep improving week over week. In Week 9, he struggled against a much-maligned Ravens passing defense (who just this past week made Browns QB Jameis Winston look like a reincarnation of his Heisman campaign at FSU) – but his odds continue to rise.
Recently, Nix has done a better job of taking care of the ball (limiting turnovers) and letting the #1 ranked Broncos defense control the game script. There has been a clear shift away from Williams and towards Nix as the potential best challenger to Daniels amongst rookie QBs. He has a seasoned veteran head coach in Sean Peyton and is playing behind one of the best (if not THE best) defenses in the league right now.
Falling
Outside the quarterback spotlight, a few skill players have managed to keep themselves in the mix. Giants WR Malik Nabers and Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the season with high expectations, opening with odds of 27.5% and 17%, respectively. However, inconsistent quarterback play and offensive limitations have hampered their production, causing their odds to drop to 🔮 1.4% for Nabers and 🔮 1.0% for Harrison Jr.
Nabers currently ranks 4th in receptions and has been a steady target for Daniel Jones. However, even with a pass-heavy Giants offense (12th in Pass Rate), they haven’t been explosive enough to showcase Nabers’ talent on a level that would give him an edge over quarterbacks (19th in aDOT). However, the Giants LOVE throwing to their WRs – no other team in the league targets their WRs more often than Daniel Jones (75% of passes thrown are to WRs) – so we can’t write Nabers off completely.
On the other hand, Harrison had a breakout game in Week 5 that briefly boosted his odds but he’s largely been held back by an inconsistent Cardinals offense that is more focused on their running game (7th in Rush Rate). Still, he is tied for 4th most TD receptions (5) and is coming off one of his past games of the season. For these receivers, the uphill battle lies in consistently producing game-changing numbers in their respective situations.
Can Anyone Catch Daniels?
At this point, it’s difficult to see anyone overtaking Daniels unless he faces a significant setback. His combination of passing and rushing production has created a gap that will be hard to close. The Commanders are in the thick of the playoff race, which not only boosts Daniels’ visibility but also keeps his award narrative strong as long as Washington remains competitive.
The final stretch of the season will reveal if Daniels can maintain his form and stay healthy but the current landscape favors him. Nix has come onto the scene as the most formidable challenger, yet he’ll need a string of standout games to gain traction. While Williams, Nabers and Harrison Jr. continue to impress, they would need elite-level production and some struggles from Daniels to truly disrupt his path to the award. Daniels and the Commanders don’t have a walk in the park - getting a Steelers team with a top 10 defensive unit (Russ is cooking, again) and their division rivals in Philly for Week 11 TNF.
For now Jayden Daniels has taken control of the OROY race and shows no signs of giving it up. The Commanders QB has seized the momentum, delivered the highlight plays, and led his team to a winning record, putting him on a clear path to bring home the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year honor.
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