🔮 Inside the Dems’ Shutdown War Room

Democratic organizer talks Schumer’s strategy and 2028 dark horses

The Oracle spoke with the anonymous creator of Organizer Memes, a leftist X account and Substack. This Gen Z activist has worked in politics for a decade as an organizer, consultant, and digital strategist, and stays in close contact with Hill staffers as they navigate the shutdown.

This interview has been edited for length. All answers are his own.

Tell me about your background in Democratic politics.

My first job was as a field organizer knocking doors, then phone banking. I’m used to talking to people who radically disagree with me and convincing them to join whatever cause I’m working on. Now I work on digital strategy for campaigns as a consultant.

I’m a member of the DSA, but I’m someone who tries to shape the system from within. My foremost goal is to be in opposition to a very dangerous right wing that is taking power globally.

Give me a sense of the Democratic strategy on the shutdown. How iron fist is Schumer in keeping Senate Democrats on board?

Destroying Obamacare is not acceptable to any member of the Democratic coalition. Jon Ossoff is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate and he’s not budging. The impacts of folding are so high that things would have to change pretty drastically.

I talk to multiple House and Senate staffers, and the calls are primarily “keep up the good work.” People want fighters and no one wants to lose their healthcare. Once it’s gone, it’s gone for good.

Obviously some negotiation will happen, but this is the only real opportunity to get concessions while Democrats are in a triple minority. I’d be pretty shocked if things change. Anyone who peels off will probably have serious primary challenges.

If I were to put money, I’d put it on Republicans folding more than Democrats.

Sounds like we’re in for a longer shutdown. Do you think this goes more than 35 days, making it the longest in history?

If I were a gambling man I’d put it on longer shutdown. There hasn’t been enough movement yet. Obviously something crazy could happen. But if they wanted to avoid 35 days when we’re already at 15+, conversations would have started more in earnest.

No one wants to seem weak, and I think it’s probably going to last a while.

How do you think this will end?

I think there’s a very low chance of a clean CR. The ACA premium subsidy extension at 27%, I think that’s a little low. I think there’s a higher chance it includes the ACA.

If the ACA doesn’t happen, I don’t see anything Democrats could get that would make up for destroying our healthcare system. This is a winning issue for Democrats. You don’t fold on a winner. No one wants to be the reason thousands of their constituents don’t have healthcare anymore.

I think Republicans are more likely to fold because this is Trump’s economy. People don’t think “Trump was in power but Democrats didn’t pass the CR so I’m going to punish Democrats” unless they were already voting Republican.

Fetterman and Angus King are about 50/50 to vote yes on a spending bill. Are these the two most likely Senators to defect?

They would probably all have serious primary challenges. Ossoff is one of the most vulnerable and he’s not budging.

Fetterman has shifted significantly since his stroke. He was always a little “I’m going to do whatever I want.” But if you read articles that have come out in the last couple months about reckless behavior, people who knew him for years were like “I don’t understand what’s going on. I’m scared or upset.”

How bullish are you on Democrats taking the House? It’s at 60% right now.

What gives me most uncertainty is redistricting. Not knowing what maps will look like makes it hard to feel confident. If we had current maps, I’d give it closer to 75% for Democrats. That number could be 40% or lower if the most extreme gerrymanders are implemented and courts don’t strike things down.

I am worried about the fairness of this upcoming election with Dominion being bought out by [Liberty Vote], with voter suppression stuff. If it’s a fair election, I think we have a very good shot. How fair it is and how free it is is unfortunately up to Republicans at this point.

Republicans have been forced to vote on some really unpopular things. The Big Beautiful Bill is completely underwater. The Epstein stuff is a gold mine for attack ads. Every Republican basically voted against releasing the Epstein files. I couldn’t write an attack ad so perfect.

Let’s go to 2028. Why is Gavin Newsom dominating so hard?

Dominating is a strong word. At this point last time in 2016 you would have said the same thing about Jeb Bush. He’s in the news and building a brand. But building a brand that lasts three more years is very hard. I would bet against Newsom at those odds honestly. His honest odds are probably 15%.

AOC too, the fact those are such high percentages is more pop psychology than reality. They’re placeholders for “someone who is progressive” or “someone who is not.” Once these people are actually attacked by other campaigns, things shift. 2020 was a great example where several people could have turned things around and been the winner at different points.

Are there any 1-2% candidates you’d bet on as dark horses?

Beshear is someone I’d buy at 3%. I’d buy Kamala at 2% even though I don’t want her to run. Pritzker at 2% is a steal. Mark Kelly at 1% is fine. Tim Walz at 1% is pretty good.

Someone I don’t want to run but think would make an interesting run is Mark Cuban. Roy Cooper at 1% is not horrible. I met Beto recently and he is charismatic as fuck. He’s not tied down on unpopular Democratic stances on Israel.

There’s also a good chance it’s someone completely not on that list. I have a feeling there’s going to be someone being run by DSA in the Democratic primary. Don’t know that person can win but if it’s a super fractured primary, anything’s possible.

Will AOC run for Senate? We have a market asking if she announces in 2025 at 6%.

There is almost zero chance of this. To announce in ‘25 that you’re running [against Schumer] in ‘28 is not considered appropriate. It’s taking focus away from the current fight. I’d be pretty shocked if she announced that early. You usually want to see how things went before you go all in, especially to challenge Schumer which is not something people take lightly. It would be a bruising primary.

How secure is Schumer as Minority Leader?

I’d be shocked if it happened before midterms. I haven’t heard anyone gearing up for something like that. To whip Senate Democrats, they’re a little busy right now on the shutdown. He’s not going anywhere realistically. I would take that bet. That’s probably the one where odds do not match reality.

Will Schumer endorse Mamdani?

I think there’s a little better chance Schumer does in the end, but no one is like “what’s Schumer’s thoughts on this?” especially because no one thinks Zohran is going to lose. It’s pretty clear it’s going to be a runaway election anyway.

Hakeem Jeffries endorsing Mamdani is more than double Schumer’s odds. Your thoughts?

His seat voted for Mamdani over Cuomo in the primary. I think that’s a little high to be honest. I hope he does. Schumer and Jeffries are about equal likelihood, maybe 45-65% or 45-55% for both of them. They think he’s going to flame out and become unpopular like so many NYC mayors do.

How are Democrats handling the Katie Porter crash out in California?

It’s an open secret in Democratic politics that Katie Porter is a hard, hard person to work for, literally the number one person I hear bad things about working for.

One incident she’s famous for is firing or demoting a staffer for giving her COVID, even though the staffer fully abided by the guidelines at the time. When I hear someone works for Porter I’m like “how was that?” and they’re always like “it was really educational.”

Do I think it changes whether she stays in the race? Absolutely not, and for two reasons. First, these people don’t think their actions are objectionable so they don’t have shame about them.

Second, there’s not a clear front runner and you only have to be top two for the jungle primary. Given there’s not a lot of high quality, high name recognition candidates, even with a major scandal it’s pretty likely she hits top two.

The New Jersey governor race is at 20% Republican.

It’s going to be closer than I’m comfortable with but Democrats will pull out at the end. There were one or two polls that had them neck and neck but people don’t understand polling. Some pollsters are better than others but that’s not communicated well by media. If you’re polling 50-50 in a state that historically favors Democrats, that’s one or two 50-50 polls and a bunch of plus five polls.

Everything feels less certain than even a couple years ago doing this stuff. Which honestly is probably good for you guys.

Final words of wisdom for prediction market traders?

I don’t trade at all, but my friends that have made money make more off the psychology than having secret information.

People overreact to news stories because of social media. If you can take advantage of other people being dumb or overreactive, you can often make more than doing tons more research.

I also think there’s a right wing bias sometimes. People bet on what they want to happen more than what they objectively think is the most likely outcome. Republicans overreact to Democrat scandals much more than Republican scandals, so there’s a bigger jump or dip when one side has something big happen.

Also, I would bet more on longshots. Mamdani is a great example. He was polling at 1% just six or eight months ago.

The media and markets lag behind the grassroots. If people want a leg up, volunteer on a campaign that’s nearby. Talking to voters about how they feel is a great way to see whether the narrative is true on the ground. Do some field research.

Organizer Memes is on Substack, Patreon, and Instagram.

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