🔮 How To Get Excommunicated on the Blockchain

PLUS: Are you on the Epstein list? Elon wins the German Election

Good morning. Here’s your Monday roundup of everything interesting happening on Polymarket today.

New Pope 2025?

On Saturday it was announced that Pope Francis, 88, is in critical condition following an “asthmatic respiratory crisis.” There’s now an 84% chance a new pope is installed this year.

Did you know that - thanks to the power of blockchain - you can not only jeopardize your money, but also your soul with a simple Metamask signature?

Gambling on the papal selection process was once punishable by excommunication (getting kicked out of the Catholic church). However this policy was either repealed or is now rarely enforced.*

If you’re more risk averse, this Wikipedia on the history of gambling on papal conclaves is fascinating.

* Not spiritual advice. Consult your priest.

Elon Musk Wins German Election

The far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which was heavily promoted by Elon Musk in the run up to Sunday’s parliamentary election, doubled their vote share from the last election to become the country’s second most powerful political force. The AfD made most gains in East Germany and with younger voters.

While some are treating the AfD’s gains as a shock, the result tracks with most pre-election polls. Despite their gains, the AfD looks like it will be frozen out of the next Government, which is 96% likely to be a coalition between the center-right CDU and current Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left SPD.

Epstein List: Who’s In & Who’s Out?

Kash Patel, who promised to release the Epstein list on day 1 was sworn in as FBI director on Friday. As of today, Monday, no list has been released. And the feed is already getting restless. Does Friday count as “day 1” or "day 0"?

AG Pam Bondi has said the documents are "sitting on my desk right now." But on Polymarket, the Epstein list being released in Trump’s first 100 days is hardly a sure thing: only 64% odds.

Who will be named? Below are the current power rankings of individuals to be named in the Epstein files by June 30.

Note the date mismatch between the two markets, and also that for a name to resolve “yes” requires just that it be mentioned in the docs, not necessarily implicated in any activity.

Bill Clinton - 63%

Bill Gates - 60%

Ehud Barak - 57%

Prince Andrew - 55%

Stephen Hawking - 42%

Alan Dershowitz - 42%

David Copperfield - 28%

Barack Obama - 27%

Hillary Clinton - 19%

Michael Jackson - 17%

Donald Trump - 13%

Impeaching Federal Judges?

The biggest threat to DOGE is the multiple legal challenges now winding through the courts, for example it is currently blocked by a court order from accessing Treasury Department systems by a judge who called its actions “chaotic and haphazard.”

This has led to calls for the impeachment of uncooperative federal judges, with some House Republicans reportedly working on articles of impeachment.

The process for removing federal judges is the same as a sitting president: a simple majority in the House to approve an article of impeachment, followed by a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict and remove.

Is this going anywhere? Not anytime soon.

Judge McConnell, a Rhode Island judge who blocked Trump’s Federal spending freeze, has only a 5% chance of being impeached by April and odds for any Federal judge to be impeached by then are 11%.

Either markets resolves “yes” if any article of impeachment is passed in the House.

Is Trump Out of Gas?

Democratic political strategist James Carville thinks that Trump’s shock-and-awe first month in office has backfired and that Democrats should sit back and watch Trump implode.

Any truth to this?

Trump’s 538 approval rating has seen a slow decay since late January, and Polymarket’s monthly presidential approval markets project that Trump’s approval will go underwater sometime in March.

• Trump Negative Approval before March - 🔮 40% chance

• Trump Negative Approval before April - 🔮 88% chance

• Trump Negative Approval before May - 🔮 90% chance

What will RFK do?

RFK Jr. was sworn in as HHS secretary on February 13. So far, he has presided over the DOGE layoffs of 3,600 employees (just under half of the probationary employees) and seems to be preparing to fire members of a vaccine committee who he accuses of having conflicts of interests.

A number of markets on Polymarket sketch out what he’s likely to do:

• Recommend removing fluoride from water - 32% chance

• Remove raw milk ban - 39% chance

• End CDC vaccine recommendations for::

  • COVID-19 - 71%

  • HPV - 24%

  • Influenza - 22%

  • Hepatitis B - 16%

  • Measles, Mumps and Rubella - 14%

  • Polio - 13%

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